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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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073 FXUS61 KILN 051044 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 644 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms can be expected ahead of cold front that passes through the area late in the day into early evening. The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. The next threat for showers and thunderstorms will occur Tuesday as moisture increases on the backside of retreating high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A moist southwest flow aloft continues today ahead of a low that tracks from the Upper MS Valley onto the Great Lakes. Patchy fog and stratus will continue to develop in the very moist post rain environment this morning. The clouds and fog will improve after sunrise - similar to yesterday. Moderate instability to develop today ahead of a surface cold front that sweeps east thru the area late in the day into early this evening. A degree of instability will be dependent on how quickly the cloud cover improves. Moderate deep shear will result in a marginal severe weather threat with the best threat across the south where the best instability is expected. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. High temperatures will range from the mid to the upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Ongoing convection in the early evening in the far east will end as the surface cold front shifts east of the region. Dry air quickly moves in behind the front heading into the overnight period. Lows tonight to range from the lower to the middle 60s. Cyclonic flow continues across the Great Lakes supporting more cu development across the north Saturday. Clouds to decrease heading into Saturday evening as surface high pressure builds into the area. Highs to range from 80 to 85. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure moves overhead Saturday night through Sunday night. This will allow for fairly favorable conditions for radiational cooling Saturday night leading to lows in the lower 60s. Fair weather conditions continue on Sunday and Sunday night with temperatures near or slightly below early July averages. Surface high pressure weakens and moves east of the Ohio Valley on Monday. Southwesterly flow redevelops on the western side of the high which will allow warm, humid conditions to return. Shower and storm chances will also redevelop Monday night through Tuesday night when an upper level shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley. Instability is forecast to be rather low so severe chances remain minimal. PWATs will likely reach above average so locally heavy rain could be possible. Near average temperatures and moisture return behind the shortwave for the end of the week. Afternoon rain chances remain low. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A very moist airmass remains continues to reside over the area today. In the post rain environment fog and stratus has developed overnight with IFR conditions at all TAF sites. Ceilings and vsbys will lift and improve this morning. An upper level low will track from the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes today. Moderate instability will support the development of storms ahead from late morning until a cold front sweeps east across the TAF sites late in the day. IFR conditions will be possible in any of these storms. Some of the stronger storms will be capable of producing strong winds. Storm threat ends late in the day into early evening with clouds scattering out and VFR conditions expected heading into this evening. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...AR