886
FXUS61 KILN 062315
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
715 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to extend across the region through
Monday. Remnants of Beryl will get drawn into the region towards
the middle of the week bringing increased rain chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Cumulus field will diminish late this afternoon into the
evening. Looks like valley fog will develop overnight and it
could end up being somewhat extensive. Temperatures will drop
into the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will remain across the area through the period.
With a dry airmass in place, expect much less cumulus on Sunday.
Temperatures will be warming with highs in the mid to upper 80s
and lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Monday is expected to be warm and dry across the region with highs
in the upper 80s to lower 90s.  Although there are some indications
that there is the potential for a few showers across far western
portions of the region Monday night, confidence was not high enough
to include in the forecast. Went close to the blend for low
temperatures with lows around 70 degrees.

On Tuesday the region starts to get into a different pattern.  A
trough starts to move towards the region and moisture from the
remnants of Beryl will start to get pulled northward into the
region.  Increased precipitation chances Tuesday through Friday to
account for this. With the increased precipitation chances,
increased cloud cover as well and decreased high temperatures.  With
the mid week moisture, given moisture transport vectors, there is a
concern for slow moving storm motion or storms moving over the same
areas. This will lead to some flooding concerns.  Will hold off on
mentioning in the HWO for today to give a little more time to fine
tune the details of the forecast and heavy rain potential. Given the
tropical influence, also decreased thunder mention to a slight
chance.

By the end of the long term the system will be pushing to the east
and there will be a return of dry conditions.  Temperatures on
Saturday, with the drier conditions, are expected to be in the upper
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Scattered cu will continue to dissipate this evening with
mostly clear skies and light winds expected overnight. This will
lead to some MVFR to IFR fog development late tonight into
Sunday morning, especially in the river valleys. The fog will
burn off through mid morning with some scattered cu development
possible heading into Sunday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL