Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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104 FXUS61 KILN 021047 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 647 AM EDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will shift off to the east today. A return to southerly flow will bring warmer and a little more humidity to the region. Hot and humid conditions are expected on Wednesday along with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This boundary will then remain in the area on the Fourth of July. Embedded mid level disturbances will interact with this boundary, resulting in multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. A stronger weather system is expected to move into the Great Lakes and Ohio region Friday into Friday night, continuing the threat for showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A mid level ridge axis will build northeast from the lower Mississippi River Valley into the eastern Great Lakes today. A weak mid level disturbance will ripple east through this ridge, bringing some mid and high level clouds. In addition, a FEW-SCT cumulus clouds will develop along the Ohio River. The mid level ridge and a return to southerly flow will bring warmer air along with a little more humidity. Highs will range from the mid to upper 80s north to near 90 along and south of the Ohio River. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... For tonight, the mid level ridge axis will shift off to the east. Lows tonight will be warmer in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. On Wednesday, a cold front is forecast to approach the region from the northwest late in the day. Skies should start out mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Southerly flow will bring higher dewpoints into the region (lower to mid 70s). These higher dewpoints, along with a little warmer temperatures, will push heat indicies into the upper 90s to the lower 100s in the afternoon. If confidence increases as we get closer, a Heat Advisory may be needed at some point, especially for locations along and south of the Ohio River. Will continue to mention it in the HWO for now. As for the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop, coverage will be tied to what kind of forcing mechanisms will interact with a moderately unstable airmass and a weak/low end moderate deep layer shear environment. At this time, that would be the cold front itself, along with possible upstream outflow boundaries/MCVs from upstream convection during the night and into the morning hours. It appears coverage, scattered to numerous showers/storms, will likely develop later in the afternoon, and then continue into the overnight hours as aforementioned weak forcing persists. The cold front will likely lay out west to east somewhere over our northern CWFA by Thursday morning. SPC continues the slight risk for severe storms for our CWFA for Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The primary severe weather threat will be damaging winds due to pcpn loading and wet microburst potential. In addition, with pwats increasing to 2+ inches, heavy rainfall will be possible which could result in localized flooding issues. Will also keep mentioning these threats in the HWO. It will be warm and muggy Wednesday night with lows in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A slow moving boundary draped across the ILN area will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms through the first portion of the long term. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are indicated for Thursday as short wave energy on a westerly mid level flow interacts with a large swath of deep moisture. Model soundings show the potential for strong storms organized by potent winds aloft, and for heavy rain from an atmosphere containing 2 inches PWAT amid favorable warm cloud depth. Additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Friday when a strong surface low and cold front swing through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Low chances for showers and storms will linger on Saturday behind the low pressure system. Mainly dry weather is expected on Sunday as high pressure builds in. The threat for showers and storms returns Monday in the moist and unstable flow ahead of an upper trough. Temperatures are forecast to be relatively consistent while remaining close to normal. Highs will be mainly in the 80s each day, with lows primarily in the 60s. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. For today, a mid level ridge axis will build northeast from the lower Mississippi River Valley into the middle Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes. A weak mid level disturbance rippling through this ridge will bring a FEW-SCT mid/high clouds. In addition, some FEW-SCT diurnal cumulus clouds will develop over the southern CWFA after 18Z. Winds will veer from the east to the south and increase to around 10 knots between 15Z and 18Z. For tonight, the mid level ridge axis will shift a little east. Some mid and high level clouds will encroach the region from the west, mostly likely convective debris blow off clouds originating from upstream thunderstorms. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Friday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM...Hickman LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...Hickman