498
FXUS61 KILN 041954
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
354 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms remain in the
forecast through Friday. The area looks to dry out over the
weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Through the next hour or so, the far southern locations in
northern Kentucky will remain under a SVR watch as a line of
storms moves through Kentucky. This area is still situated on
the apex of the better instability across central Kentucky.
Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat before thunderstorm
coverage decreases after 6 pm.

As the threat along the south decreases, attention will shift to
an increasing threat across eastern Indiana, western Ohio, and
southward toward the greater Cincinnati area. These locations
will still observe a few more hours of heating behind the line
of storms and associated anvil shield from the convective line
to the south. The question that lingers is whether or not the
boundary layer will recover enough to result in severe weather.
Given weak mid-level lapse rates, surface heating will be
especially critical for supporting strong updrafts. A weak
surface low will help to trigger an expanding area of showers
and thunderstorms due to the increased convergence within the
cyclonic flow. Depending on how much instability is available,
updrafts may be strong enough to take advantage of the
strengthening deep layer flow. This would support a few damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two with the more organized
storms. Even if the severe weather threat ultimately ends up
lower, there will still be decent coverage in shower and
storms, potentially lingering into the late evening hours.

Can`t rule out some locally heavy rainfall given the moisture
rich environment.

Behind the weak low pressure, drier conditions are expected
through the overnight with the primary frontal boundary still
well off the west. This will finally sweep through the area late
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
After a couple days featuring a stalled frontal boundary and
moist atmospheric conditions, the 500 mb trough will finally dig
into the Great Lakes through the day on Friday. This will
provide another chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout
the day with the passage of the front moving through during the
evening hours. There will likely be some cloud cover extending
northward from convection to the south so thunderstorm coverage
is expected to be quite limited during the first part of the
day.

As the front approaches during the afternoon and evening,
diurnal heating will help to initiate scattered thunderstorms
across the area. Due to the lack of strong and focused forcing,
development is expected to be quite disorganized with the best
potential for stronger storms across and east of the Scioto
River Valley region.

Dry air quickly moves in behind the front heading into the
overnight period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will result in dry conditions through Monday.
Temperatures will start off a bit below normal on Saturday and
warm to above normal by Monday. A short wave will track out of
the central part of the country and cross the region late
Tuesday through Tuesday night. This will bring the next chance
of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. Mid level
troughing will persist beyond this time although surface ridging
will eventually build in. This will lead to nearly seasonal
temperatures and another generally dry period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered, disorganized thunderstorms continue to form and
dissipate across the area this afternoon. This has made timing
challenging. To the south, a more organized line of
thunderstorms will pass to the south of the area. Behind the
line, temperatures are beginning to warm following this
morning`s thunderstorms/stratiform rain. Therefore, left VCTS
mention in through the rest of the afternoon and into the
evening (00Z-02Z) as additional thunderstorms are forecast.
Confidence on timing and coverage are low so no TEMPO groups
were added.

Following the thunderstorm/shower activity this evening, another
period of MVFR/IFR CIGs is expected through the overnight into
Friday morning. Some VIS restrictions are also forecast.
Improvement is expected through the mid-morning with VFR
expected by the afternoon. The front will still not have passed
through until after 00Z Saturday so some thunderstorms will once
again be possible.

Surface flow will be less than 10 knots except for influences
from thunderstorms. Westerly winds increase to above 10 knots
Saturday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...McGinnis
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...McGinnis