Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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757 FXUS61 KILN 051750 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 150 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms can be expected ahead of cold front that passes through the area late in the day into early evening. The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. The next threat for showers and thunderstorms will occur Tuesday as moisture increases on the backside of retreating high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Morning update... A weakening line of showers and thunderstorms continues to approach southwest portions of the area. In general, thunderstorm intensity trends have been decreasing with cloud top temperatures warming over the last one to two hours. Lingering cloud cover along a stalled boundary continues to break apart across the Ohio River ahead of the thunderstorm line, however, efficient heating has been delayed. The best chance to see thunderstorm updrafts reinvigorated would be across the far southeast (southern Ohio, northeast Kentucky) portions of the area after several more hours of heating can take place. Bumped up PoPs in the far south to account for the line and potential for new development. Given the 35 to 40 knots effective bulk shear, can`t rule out a few damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with minor adjustments made to the afternoon/evening thunderstorm coverage. Previous discussion... A moist southwest flow aloft continues today ahead of a low that tracks from the Upper MS Valley onto the Great Lakes. Patchy fog and stratus will continue to develop in the very moist post rain environment this morning. The clouds and fog will improve after sunrise - similar to yesterday. Moderate instability to develop today ahead of a surface cold front that sweeps east thru the area late in the day into early this evening. A degree of instability will be dependent on how quickly the cloud cover improves. Moderate deep shear will result in a marginal severe weather threat with the best threat across the south where the best instability is expected. Isolated damaging wind gusts would be the primary threat. High temperatures will range from the mid to the upper 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Ongoing convection in the early evening in the far east will end as the surface cold front shifts east of the region. Dry air quickly moves in behind the front heading into the overnight period. Lows tonight to range from the lower to the middle 60s. Cyclonic flow continues across the Great Lakes supporting more cu development across the north Saturday. Clouds to decrease heading into Saturday evening as surface high pressure builds into the area. Highs to range from 80 to 85. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure moves overhead Saturday night through Sunday night. This will allow for fairly favorable conditions for radiational cooling Saturday night leading to lows in the lower 60s. Fair weather conditions continue on Sunday and Sunday night with temperatures near or slightly below early July averages. Surface high pressure weakens and moves east of the Ohio Valley on Monday. Southwesterly flow redevelops on the western side of the high which will allow warm, humid conditions to return. Shower and storm chances will also redevelop Monday night through Tuesday night when an upper level shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley. Instability is forecast to be rather low so severe chances remain minimal. PWATs will likely reach above average so locally heavy rain could be possible. Near average temperatures and moisture return behind the shortwave for the end of the week. Afternoon rain chances remain low. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A more concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms is moving out of the area, providing some light rain to the Columbus area TAF sites. Otherwise, the rest of the scattered activity is isolated to the front which is still west of the sites, toward Indianapolis. This front will generate additional showers and a perhaps a few thunderstorms from 21-02Z as it moves through from west to east. Based on the current environment over the area, removed lightning mention because coverage is expected to be more limited. As needed, TS mention will be added as confidence improves. Winds around 5-10 knots will shift to more westerly throughout the remainder of the TAF behind the cold front. VFR stratocumulus will then expand across the sites for much of Saturday. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...McGinnis/AR SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...McGinnis