Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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365 FXUS61 KILN 072321 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 721 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will persist through Monday. A weakening front will move into the area late Monday night and Tuesday. The remnants of Beryl will track northeast across the region Tuesday night through Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Cumulus will dissipate with the loss of heating. Some thin cirrus may start to spread in from the southwest towards daybreak. Winds will be light and lows will be in the lower to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Dry airmass will remain in place as high pressure centered off to the east keeps its influence across the region. A northern stream short wave will shear out to the northeast across the Great Lakes Monday night. This may allow a weakening front to slide into the area. But low level moisture will still be meager and forcing quite weak, so it will remain dry with an increase in high and perhaps mid clouds. Warming trend will continue with highs generally in the lower 90s and lows ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The remnants of Beryl and the interaction with the trough will be the main story for the first few days of the long term time period. Moisture will start to move into the area during the day on Tuesday and then overspread the region Tuesday night. There is still some variability with where exactly the center of the low will track, however models are coming more in line with a solution that would bring measurable rain to the region. Details still have to be resolved with low track to fully determine whether any locations will have a flood threat. There is at least some potential though that isolated flooding could be a possibility. The greatest chance for thunder will be during the day on Wednesday. Models are in better agreement with when precipitation will exit the region and most of the precipitation will be east of the area by Thursday evening. Temperatures during this time frame Tuesday through Thursday will be a little tricky given dependence on low track and subsequent precipitation. In general expect lower temperatures northwest of Interstate 71 and warmer temperatures southeast. There is not a clear signal then for additional precipitation until late Sunday. These days of dry conditions will allow for high temperatures in the 80s to around 90 degrees. Lows will generally be in the 60s to around 70. && .AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Surface high pressure will remain in place across the region through the day on Monday. Lingering cu will continue to dissipate this evening, leaving mostly clear skies overnight. With light winds, some river valley fog will be possible again later tonight into Monday morning. This would mainly affect KLUK. Otherwise, a few cu will likely develop through late morning and into Monday afternoon. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday night into Thursday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL