193
FXUS61 KILN 031004
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
604 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail into the weekend. A weak cold front will
drop into the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Short wave over the lower Great Lakes will continue to progress
southeast and should be past the area by peak heating. At the
surface, high pressure will persist. The atmosphere is forecast to
have little or no cap, but forcing will be minimal at best. So cannot
rule out isolated convection but most area will stay dry with just
diurnal cumulus. Various convective allowing models are showing a few
cells, with any signal in the HREF suggesting the relatively higher
probability (still less than 20 percent) extending from west central
Ohio into central Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Heights will be rising as a mid level high builds northeast. And the
surface high will remain firmly entrenched. There could still be some
diurnal cumulus, but likely less than today.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure parks east of the Ohio Valley and upper level
ridging remains in place over the region Friday night through Sunday
morning. Above average temperatures and dry conditions will persist
along with weak southerly flow. Surface dew points are likely to
reach close to 70 on Saturday afternoon which limits the maximum
heat index values to below 100 assuming the current temperature and
dew point forecasts hold.

On Sunday, upper level ridging begins to give wave to more zonal
flow to start the week. As upper level flow flattens, a weak surface
front may drop in from the north. The combination of zonal flow and
the weak cold front should help to support shower and thunderstorm
chances starting Sunday afternoon and building Monday and Tuesday
afternoons/evenings. A combination of high temperatures and humidity
Sunday afternoon may allow the heat index to exceed 100 in a few
locations. Temperatures should be a bit more moderated starting
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Few to scattered cumulus will develop with heating and then diminish
late in the day. Winds will become northwest at less than 10 kt
during the day and then return to light and variable. Cannot rule out
some visibility restrictions in fog occurring at KLUK late.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Monday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...