Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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195 FXUS61 KILN 052340 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 740 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The area looks to dry out over the weekend as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley. The next threat for showers and thunderstorms will occur Tuesday as moisture increases on the backside of retreating high pressure. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... This afternoon, the cold front which is expected to move through the area later this evening still remains in Indiana. Over the local area, remnant mid-level clouds from the earlier line of showers and thunderstorms persists. This has kept area temperatures in check, mostly ranging from the upper 70s to lower 80s. Given the lack of modest warming across the area, trended PoPs downward for later on this afternoon and evening, however, there will still be some scattered showers and thunderstorms. Can`t rule out an isolated strong wind gust, but the overall severe threat remains limited. Later this evening, the cold front will move through, shifting winds out of the west and ushering in drier air. Lingering low level moisture may allow for some valley fog to develop, and this has been noted in the Scioto River Valley and portions of the Ohio River. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Upper level trough continues to move eastward Saturday morning, with the surface low still north across the Great Lakes. Enough moisture extends southward supporting the development of stratocumulus during the mid-morning through early afternoon. Heating during the afternoon will erode the cloud deck from south to north. As a result of the clouds, high temperatures are a few degrees lower north of I-70, generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Westerly winds are between 10 to 15 mph with a few gusts up to 20 mph during the afternoon. Throughout the afternoon and into the evening, a weak surface high pressure builds in from the west, keeping conditions dry. Under mostly clear skies, low temperatures range from the upper 50s to the mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will keep the region dry for the beginning of the week with temperatures rising back above normal. A short wave will lift across the region on Tuesday dragging a weak cold front across the area. This will bring the next chance of showers and thunderstorms which should clear out by Tuesday evening. Mid level pattern becomes blocky with a positively tilted long wave trough extending from eastern Canada into the Plains during the latter part of the week. Forecast area will be on the front side of this in broad west southwesterly flow. Surface high will translate across the Great Lakes into New England during the latter half of the week. At the same time, there is considerable uncertainty with the fate of Beryl, but it certain is possible that some of the moisture from the remnants of that storm works its way into the area at some point. Given the wide range of possibilities, have just included low chance PoPs Wednesday into Friday. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A weak and mostly dry front will push east through the terminals this evening, leading to a westerly wind shift. It will also lead to drier conditions overnight with most sites remaining VFR. Valley fog is likely late at LUK, and can`t rule out some temporary visibility restrictions at ILN (less confidence here). Saturday will see westerly flow along with the formation of a VFR cumulus field during the afternoon. These shallow clouds will dissipate before sunset. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...McGinnis SHORT TERM...McGinnis LONG TERM... AVIATION...