650
FXUS62 KILM 071345
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
945 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and muggy airmass will remain in place across the east-
central Carolinas this week with dangerous heat and humidity
possible at times, especially mid week. A bit more unsettled
pattern than normal should provide some much-needed rainfall.

&&

.UPDATE...
Scattered multi-layer clouds are a welcome change across the
CWA this morning, precluding the unrestricted heating of the
last few days. This will keep highs closer to normal and there
are no major changes needed for the temps/dewpoints with this
update. Some sea breeze showers are already popping up along
the SC coast, and I have added a slight chance PoP there to
account for the stray hundredth of an inch or two which might
accumulate under one of these. Otherwise, isolated to scattered
showers and storms should develop mainly this afternoon and
evening before waning during the first half of the overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Similar conditions to yesterday besides lower temperatures, heat
indices staying below Heat Advisory guidelines but still in the
100s. Higher confidence for showers/storms seems to be to our north,
but opted to keep highest coverage inland due to the still stalled
boundary there and thus better forcing. There will again be the
threat for isolated heavy rainfall and localized flooding as the
environment hasn`t really changed. Highs in the lower to mid 90s
with lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Heat Advisory possible inland Tuesday

Confidence:
*Moderate

Details:

The surface weather pattern will feature Atlantic high pressure
centered offshore and a stalled front inland while the upper air
pattern features weak high pressure generally prevailing with an
upper low shifting southwestward not too far offshore. Plentiful
moisture will combine with daytime heating, the sea breeze and the
aforementioned inland frontal boundary to yield higher than normal
rain chances for inland areas. Although isolated damaging winds are
possible each afternoon the main concern will be locally heavy
rainfall which could yield some flooding, especially in low-lying
and poorly-drained areas.

Temps are a bit tricky given some uncertainty in rain/cloud coverage
but should generally be near to maybe slightly above normal. Looks
like heat indices should mostly stay below Heat Advisory levels (105
degrees) Monday but could reach 105+ degrees away from the immediate
coast Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Highlights:
*Dangerous heat/humidity likely each afternoon, mainly through
Thursday
*Much-needed rainfall possible, especially inland

Confidence:
*Moderate

Details:

A more unsettled pattern than normal is likely given a stalled
front/trough over or just west of the area while Atlantic high
pressure centered to the east prevails. Most of the rain through
Thursday should fall inland with increasing rainfall possible near
the coast later in the week as some upper-level energy gets
involved. Severe storms will be a low threat with localized flooding
likely a slightly bigger threat.

Temps look to be near to above normal Wednesday before falling back
a bit closer to or even below normal the rest of the week due to
increased cloud/rain coverage. Heat Advisories are possible each
afternoon through Thursday away from the immediate coast for heat
indices likely topping out in the 105-109 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Terminals look to have dodged the worst, MVFR/IFR stopping just
north of KFLO/KLBT. Any restrictions should be brief this
morning as fog/stratus burns off. Headed into the afternoon, cu
should be around 4kft with a sea breeze moving through coastal
terminals 15-17Z. Highest shower/storm chances will again be
near inland terminals with mainly diminished VSBY concerns in
heavier rain. Low stratus/fog are again possible tonight, mainly
inland.

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to prevail outside of
convection. Early morning fog and low clouds are possible each
morning, especially where precip falls the previous day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...Sub-SCA conditions. SSW winds near 10 kts will
increase to 10-15 kts with the afternoon sea breeze. Weaker winds
will yield a weaker SW wind wave than yesterday at 1 ft and 4-5
seconds. The SE swell will be 2 ft at 8-9 seconds with seas
generally 2 ft with some 3 footers around 20 nm out.

Monday through Thursday...Atlantic high pressure will prevail with a
stalled front over or inland of the local marine area. Fairly
typical summertime conditions are anticipated with periods of higher
winds, mainly from the afternoon/evening sea breeze and nocturnal
surging. However, winds should mostly stay below 20 kt with seas
mostly 3 ft or less so we are not expecting any Small Craft
Advisories.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...LEW
MARINE...RJB/LEW