365
FXUS62 KILM 101803
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
203 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm chances remain elevated today and
Friday. Rain chances decrease slightly for the weekend, but
afternoon showers and thunderstorms remain a fixture into the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Instability is increasing across the area as temperatures
(outside of FLO`s cloud cover) have warmed well into the 80s
with sfc dewpoints in the low 70s. RUC/SPC meso page already
indicating 2000J/Kg of SBCAPE on our way to 3000. Shear remains
nearly non- existent though so storm organization is not
expected. Even so with such strong instability a wet microburst
tough to rule out, as indicated by SWODY1 from SPC showing
Marginal/5% wind. Model guidance isn`t particularly favoring any
given location where convection is favored (the WRF hits the
seabreeze the hardest though) and so our forecast will do the
same. Should the clouds in the FLO area not break up then some
lower POPs may be introduced there. Showers may linger longer
than normal as we have pieced of shortwave energy traversing the
area through 12Z. Some guidance even hints that POPs are
warranted all night in the Cape Fear Region. Tomorrow looks to
offer a very similar setup but with slightly weaker energy aloft
which will translate to about a 10 percent lowering of the
POPs, which is still above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Broad troughing will maintain the potential for daily afternoon
showers and storms across the area this weekend. Modest storm
motion and deep moisture in the vicinity of convective
development could lead to some localized heavy rainfall amounts
through the weekend. While the threat of any significant
flooding is small, several days of repeated activity over the
same area could result in a cumulative impact by Saturday or
Sunday. Weak dry air advection over portions of NC will bring
enough dry air in the mid levels to be concerned with an
isolated strong downdraft in the taller storms on Saturday. SPC
maintains the area in general thunder, but this appears to be a
similar areal and generalized threat to previous days. Hot with
highs in the low to mid 90s each day with heat indices
approaching 100; it`s July.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Northwesterly flow develops on Sunday around an upper high to
our south. This should produced some more organized convection
at some point during afternoon. An approaching cold front on
Monday and Tuesday suggest this will be the best day for
organized activity. Daily afternoon showers and storms will
continue each day outside of those more enhanced triggers for
development. The front lingers in the area on Tuesday through
the end of the week. Hard to say what the rest of the week looks
like in detail, but unsettled weather should generally be the
trend. Highs in the lower 90s each day, becoming around 90
during the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A pretty active afternoon of thunderstorms expected, though
neither inland nor coastal terminals seem to have any better or
worse chance to see lowered flight categories. The activity is
forecast to last a bit longer into the evening as a mid level
disturbance approaches from the west tonight-possibly affecting
ILM on on off through the overnight hours. Confidence is lower
regarding possible fog formation tonight. Some guidance portrays
fog while others do not. Given that it may stay a bit cloudy
have left out of the forecast attm. Fog formation and location
will also hinge in part on where the heaviest rain falls this
afternoon/evening.

Extended Outlook... Intermittent flight restrictions are
possible each day due to daytime/evening convection and
potential early morning fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Friday... Bermuda High and Piedmont trough to bring
southwesterly winds through the period. Frying Pans Shoals buoy
41013 is currently showing waves dominating at 5 and 7 seconds,
the former out of the southwest and the latter southeast, also
expected to continue largely unchanged through the short term.

Friday Night through Tuesday... Bermuda high will be in control
throughout much of the upcoming week. Southwesterly flow will
generate a 3-4 feet through early Saturday with weakening flow
on Saturday and lower seas of 2-3 feet. With an upper ridge to
our southwest late this weekend, seas will trend downward to
around 1-2 feet as surface winds trend to a more southerly
direction.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...MBB/21