![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
786 FXUS62 KILM 200011 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 811 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable temperatures and good chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue for most of the next seven days as Bermuda High offshore and the Piedmont Trough inland remain nearly stationary. && .UPDATE... A wave of convection will move northeastward across the area this evening, dropping locally heavy rainfall. Even though this may be the second or even third wave of storms for some areas today, surface-based instability is not necessary: given the great depth of moisture Showalter indices (essentially the LI using 850 mb for the initial parcel) are -2 to -3 and should easily sustain convection for hours to come. The best rain chances should exist across the Pee Dee and Grand Strand regions now through 1 AM. Storms should wrap up in the Cape Fear area after 3 AM. This convection is linked to an upper level disturbance currently moving across western South Carolina. Changes with the forecast this evening related mainly to hourly timing of the highest PoPs which range from 50 percent (Georgetown-Myrtle Beach) to as high as 80-90 percent across the Pee Dee/I-95 corridor. I`ve maintained patchy fog inland as there should be widespread development of low stratus late tonight behind the storms. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front just north of the local forecast area. This front has worked along with the Piedmont trough and the seabreeze to spawn some sparse convection over the area so far, with more to come over the next several hours. While no severe weather is expected, some storms may become strong at times, with wind gusts up to 40-45 mph, small hail, and frequent lightning. Still have plenty of water in the column, with precipitable water values routinely climbing above 2 inches. However, the mid-levels aren`t as saturated, and Corfidi downshear vectors are rather fast. Locally heavy rain is certainly possible in some spots, but especially considering the drought, we shouldn`t have any widespread flooding issues to worry about. Convection wanes a bit late this evening after solar insolation decreases, but rain chances remain near the coast. Lows tonight in the low-to-mid 70s. Weak cold front tries to edge a bit closer to the area Saturday. This kicks up the rain chances even more, aided by better forcing aloft from shortwaves traversing through the area from the southwest. This puts the kinematics in better shape compared to today, allowing for a "Marginal Risk" (threat level 1/5) of severe weather, particularly closer to the coast. While shear is still on the weaker side, it does poke up just enough to warrant a damaging wind threat in multicell thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Still looking at vort-laden southwesterly mid level flow and a front stalled in the area. On the downside this means widespread showers and storms that will be hard to pin down timing and location-wise, the upside is that most places should get more drought releif. Temperature deviations from climatology will be minimal through the period. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... An admittedly rare July forecast with very elevated rain chances through most of its duration. The front from the near/short term will no longer be the culprit as it will have washed out. The deviation from the normal pattern (more ridging/higher heights aloft) will be the continued deep southerly flow; southeasterly in the low levels and southwesterly above. This prevents any of the antecedent deep layer moisture from being scoured out. Most of the long term will feature PW values from 2.0-2.3", which are the 90th percentile and daily maxima for the dates. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An upper level disturbance passing across the area tonight will be accompanied by a broad wave of showers and thunderstorms. These will NOT likely be severe weather makers, but will produce very heavy rainfall with significant visibility restrictions expected. Although not explicitly shown in our TAFs, heavy rain in the small cores of these storms will cause brief IFR visibility down to 1SM or lower. Storms should exit the Grand Strand and Pee Dee region between 03-06z tonight, and will leave the Cape Fear area by 08z. Afterward, low stratus and some fog should develop inland with moderate to high potential for IFR conditions at both KFLO and KLBT developing between 06-09z. Conditions will begin to improve between 13-15z. Another round of showers and thunderstorms may develop during the day Saturday. Convective activity along the seabreeze front is possible as early as 15z at KILM, then shifting inland to KFLO and KLBT by 20z. Extended Outlook...There is continued good potential for visibility reduction from heavy rain in showers and thunderstorms each day through next Wednesday. && .MARINE... Through Saturday...SSW to SW winds at 10-15kts continue through this period. Seas linger at 2-3ft, with a combination of wind waves and a smaller southeasterly swell that clocks in at 8-9 seconds. Saturday night through Wednesday... Very little deviations from south to southwesterly winds with the Bermuda High and Piedmont trough in semi-permanent positions. With speeds generally 10-15kt winds waves will run 2-3 ft, while a small SE component will yield a dominant wave forecast of 3-4ft for most of the period. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...TRA NEAR TERM...IGB SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...TRA