265
FXUS62 KILM 151034
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
634 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above-normal heat and humidity will persist into midweek.
Afternoon showers and storms will remain isolated to widely
scattered through midweek until a front reaches down into the
Carolinas and stalls late in the week. Expected more widespread
or numerous showers and thunderstorms later Wed thru Fri. The
front should lift back northward over the weekend, bringing a
return to more typical summertime pattern.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main story will be the heat, with another Heat Advisory now in
effect for the entire ILM CWA from 10am thru 8pm today.
Expecting widespread 105 thru 109 heat indices, with a few
spots possibly eclipsing 110 degrees for a minimal time. If the
high resolution models indicate a longer 110+ occurrence, then
an Excessive Heat Warning would be warranted. Please remain
vigilant with the ongoing heat! Boosted tonights lows with some
additional 80 degree lows now possible for tonight accompanied
with 80 degree dewpoints. Yikes, talk about uncomfortable
sleeping wx if no AC. Hot temps also in store, with triple
digit reading max temps again possible today.

The sfc features that affect the ILM CWA will be Bermuda high
pressure ridging to Florida, a trof extending across the
Central Carolinas and the daily evolution of the aftn/evening
sea breeze and its push inland. The mid and upper level
ridging will suppress further southward, leaving westerly flow
aloft. A progged subsidence inversion roughly extending between
600 and 450 mb will help curtail any widespread convection.
However, the sfc trof and sea breeze will provide enough forcing
combined with avbl instability for convection to initiate. Low
chance POPs will be advertised. PWs will be slowly increasing
to above 2 inches and generally staying just above 2 inches
tonight and especially into Tue

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The heat continues on unabated Tuesday and Wednesday with
really no discernible change in the pattern. Local guidance is
showing Tuesday more of an excessive heat warning type of day
most likely due to deeper moisture in the profiles and this
seems reasonable. As for convection confidence is low as it
appears at first glance there is little impetus for activity but
at the end of the day the meandering deep convection seems to
cover a lot of ground.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pops are the focus of the extended period and really
still a bit to far out in time to add a lot of detail. The
usual mechanisms for this type of coverage are in play and they
include a decent mid level trough...surface front and high
precipitable water values. As for temperatures a significant
cool down is in order based primarily on all of the moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR to dominate this period. The exception will be possible
periodic restricted vsby from BR and low stratus ceilings,
mainly across the inland terminals late tonight. If boundary
layer winds remain active late tonight, like this morning, then
the mentioned restrictions shouldn`t be an issue late tonight.
Isolated/Widely scattered afternoon/evening tstorms will warrant
at-most VCTS across all terminals, forcing from the sea breeze
and an inland sfc trof will be enough for this isolated activity
to occur. Still confidence remains low to include specifics in
regards to PROB30 or TEMPO tstorm groups. Flow generally SW-WSW
around 5 kt this morning, increasing to 5 to 10 kt except
10-15G20 kt at the coastal terminals once the sea breeze
develops and progresses inland FROM midday thru this evening.
Winds will retreat back to around 5 kt by 04z Tue.

Extended Outlook... Atlantic high pressure and inland sfc trof
will result in a typical summertime pattern with diurnally
driven convection with brief restrictions each day. VFR should
otherwise dominate outside of any early morning fog/low cigs. By
Thu, a cold front will drop into the Carolinas accompanied by
an increase in shower/storm coverage and periodic flight
restrictions thru Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...This period will feature the Bermuda high
pressure ridge axis extending to Florida. Meanwhile, a sfc trof
will orient across the central Carolinas. Between the 2 lies the
ILM coastal waters where a semi-tightened sfc pg will exist thru
the period. Generally looking at SW 10-15 kt thru the period
except during the afternoon/evening sea breeze and overnight
low level surges, could observe a solid 15 kt or 15 to 20 kt at
times. Winds nearshore will back to a more southerly direction
once the sea breeze becomes established and pushes inland. Seas
generally in the 2 to 4 ft range with its composition
consisting of a SE swell around 8 second periods and short
period SW wind waves.

Tuesday through Friday Night...South to southwest winds of
15-20 knots perhaps a little stronger at times will be in place
through the mid week period. Later in the period wind speeds
diminish somewhat as the gradient becomes less defined as the
inland trough weakens. Significant seas while overall in a range
of 2-4 feet may see some five footers in and out Tuesday and
Wednesday but should stay below headline criteria.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
SC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/SHK