569
FXUS62 KILM 161945
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
345 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue through mid week. An
approaching cold front will bring high rain chances and slightly
cooler temperatures later this week into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Bermuda High and western Atlantic 5h ridge remain in place beyond
Wed, ensuring the hot and humid conditions continue in the near
term. Ongoing convection this afternoon will persist and expand
through late afternoon before weakening in the evening, much like it
did on Mon. Elevated boundary level moisture may lead to some low
clouds overnight, but winds will be more than strong enough to
prevent fog development. The mixing along with increased moisture
and cloud cover will keep lows tonight above to well above climo.
Along the coast can expected widespread lows 80 or above.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms expected Wed with the
Piedmont trough and sea breeze are likely to be the starting point
for storms. Outflow from initial convection will lead to additional
storm development. Difference on Wed will be the amount of mid-level
support. Several weak impulses will move across the area which will
enhance storm develop and increase storm coverage. Cannot rule out a
lone strong/severe storm, but the overall environment is not
supportive of an organized severe threat. Storm motion should be
enough to keep flooding from being a larger scale concern despite a
warm cloud layer approaching 14k ft. The increased storm coverage
will lead to more cloud cover which will keep afternoon highs a bit
cooler than the past few days. Temperatures and dewpoints Wed
afternoon will still be high and may warrant a Heat Advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Localized flooding from heavy rainfall possible

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details:

A stalling cold front will move southeast toward SE NC and NE SC,
possibly pushing into the area Thursday night. Expect hot and humid
weather to continue through the period although not quite as
oppressive as we`ve seen recently given the increased cloud/rain
coverage. Heat indices should peak at less than Heat Advisory levels
(105 degrees) Thursday afternoon. Rain chances will be above normal
given the abundant levels of moisture and frontal/shortwave forcing.
As usual, rainfall timing and amounts are more uncertain but should
generally peak Thu aftn/eve. Some of the rainfall will be heavy at
times and could lead to localized flooding, especially in low-lying
and poorly-drained areas Thu aftn/eve.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Highlights:
*Localized flooding from heavy rainfall possible

Confidence:
*Moderate

Details:

A stalling cold front over or just west of the area Friday
should push back inland and weaken into early next week as
Atlantic high pressure strengthens. Although moisture levels
will remain high, we should start to see a bit lower rain
chances early next week and have trended our rain chances down just
a tad. Some of the rainfall should be heavy at times and thus
localized flooding will be possible.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread VFR with potential for brief MVFR/IFR if an isolated
to scattered shower/thunderstorm happens to affect a terminal.
Expect limited coverage of storms this afternoon/evening and
thus continue to carry VCTS for all terminals. Threat from
storms will diminish in the evening. Southwest winds overnight
will prevent fog from developing and drier air at the top of the
mixed layer should keep low stratus development very limited.
Storm coverage and potential for brief MVFR/IFR ceilings and
visibility increase on Wed, mainly right around the end of the
current valid TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Potential for daily afternoon/evening
MVFR/IFR through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday: Bermuda High and Piedmont trough combo will
maintain southwest flow through Wed. Gradient will tighten Wed
afternoon into evening, which may result in a few gusts around
25 kt, but frequency and spatial coverage appear such that a
Small Craft Advisory will not be required. Seas 3-4 ft through
tonight bump to 3-5 ft later Wed as the southwest flow becomes a
bit stronger. The south to southwest wind wave will continue to
be the dominant wave.

Wednesday night through Sunday...Atlantic high pressure will
edge in from the east while a trough lingers inland. This will
lead to fairly typical summertime conditions with periods of
higher winds, mainly from the afternoon/evening sea breeze and
nocturnal surging. However, winds should mostly stay below 20 kt
with seas 5 ft or less, although could come pretty close to Small
Craft Advisory levels Wednesday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents - Strong Longshore Currents:
With an increasing gradient between the inland trough and
Bermuda High Pressure...a strong south to north longshore
current is expected today across the east facing beaches. A
moderate risk for rip currents is expected as well for all
areas.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-
     096-099-105>110.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-
     023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...III
MARINE...III/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...