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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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120 FXUS62 KILM 180740 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 340 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase ahead of an approaching cold front today. The front will linger near or north of the area through the weekend. Rain chances will remain elevated through Monday with temperatures running near to slightly below normal. Unsettled weather may continue into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cold front north and west of the area will slowly approach today and tonight as energy aloft passes through. These features will interact with moist, unstable air over the area to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon into the evening. A few of the storms could be strong to severe. Given the abundant moisture available, locally heavy rain is possible but antecedent soil and stream conditions should preclude flooding widespread enough to warrant a watch attm. Highs today should reach the low to mid 90s with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. Attm, temperatures and dewpoints look to keep apparent temperatures below heat advisory criteria but numbers approaching 105 are possible before the onset of showers and storms, especially inland. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Somewhat unsettled conditions will continue into the weekend as a front becomes stationary across the area with a broad southwest flow aloft. Intervals of showers and thunderstorms will continue across all areas. The highest pops occur Friday afternoon and evening and once again overnight Saturday into Sunday. Overall temperatures will hover near climatology. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The mid level pattern will feature a mid level ridge over the Atlantic and subtle to at times decent troughing across the Central U.S. A broad southwest flow will persist across the southeast as pops will generally remain above climatology. No dramatic fronts and or air mass changes with temperatures at or near climatology. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions occurring presently in the wake of earlier convection though there is an abundance of debris cloud present over the area. Some guidance indicates MVFR or even IFR BR/FG is possible before daybreak. Current thinking is debris clouds will prevent it but should the debris clouds dissipate, br/fg could form. After sunrise, any fog that forms should rapidly burn off and generally expect VFR cigs until showers and storms develop in the afternoon. For now, have prob groups in the late afternoon with VCTS all terminals into the evening. Extended Outlook...Potential for afternoon and evening MVFR/IFR from showers and thunderstorms through Monday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Will continue marginal SCA for SW winds of 15 to 20 KT with gusts to 25 KT for now. If current trends continue, we may be able to cancel at 6 AM but SW winds will remain frisky into this evening before dropping off to 10 to 15 KT overnight. Seas will run 3 to 5 FT. Friday through Monday... The marine community will see winds...more typical of deep summertime south to southwest at 10-15 knots probably moreso on the lower end. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet with the spectrum mainly consisting of shorter period wind waves. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ110. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ056. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for AMZ250- 252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...31 SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...31 MARINE...SHK/31