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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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863 FXUS62 KILM 181739 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 139 PM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase ahead of an approaching cold front today. The front will linger near or north of the area through the weekend. Rain chances will remain elevated through Monday with temperatures running near to slightly below normal. Unsettled weather may continue into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A cold front north and west of the area will slowly approach today and tonight as energy aloft passes through. These features will interact with moist, unstable air over the area to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon into the evening. A few of the storms could be strong to severe. Given the abundant moisture available, locally heavy rain is possible but antecedent soil and stream conditions should preclude flooding widespread enough to warrant a watch attm. Highs today should reach the low to mid 90s with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s. Attm, temperatures and dewpoints look to keep apparent temperatures below heat advisory criteria but numbers approaching 105 are possible before the onset of showers and storms, especially inland. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Somewhat unsettled conditions will continue into the weekend as a front becomes stationary across the area with a broad southwest flow aloft. Intervals of showers and thunderstorms will continue across all areas. The highest pops occur Friday afternoon and evening and once again overnight Saturday into Sunday. Overall temperatures will hover near climatology. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The mid level pattern will feature a mid level ridge over the Atlantic and subtle to at times decent troughing across the Central U.S. A broad southwest flow will persist across the southeast as pops will generally remain above climatology. No dramatic fronts and or air mass changes with temperatures at or near climatology. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Widespread VFR continues with scattered cumulus developing inland and mid-level clouds along the coast. Increased potential for MVFR/IFR late afternoon through the evening as broken line of showers and thunderstorms move in from the northwest. MVFR ceilings may linger in the wake of the storms overnight, especially inland. Fog will be less of a concern given the strength of boundary layer winds, although brief MVFR visibility cannot be ruled out. Front will be in the area Fri which should lead to increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms as well as an earlier start time. It could very well be that storms develop before 18Z, but for now do not have any convection in the TAFs after 09Z. Extended Outlook...Potential for afternoon and evening MVFR/IFR from showers and thunderstorms each day. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... Will continue marginal SCA for SW winds of 15 to 20 KT with gusts to 25 KT for now. If current trends continue, we may be able to cancel at 6 AM but SW winds will remain frisky into this evening before dropping off to 10 to 15 KT overnight. Seas will run 3 to 5 FT. Friday through Monday... The marine community will see winds...more typical of deep summertime south to southwest at 10-15 knots probably moreso on the lower end. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet with the spectrum mainly consisting of shorter period wind waves. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...31 SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...III MARINE...SHK/31