296
FXUS62 KILM 190754
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
354 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances will remain elevated through Monday with
temperatures running near to slightly below normal. Unsettled
weather may continue into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front just north and west of the area will remain near the
area today and tonight as upper level energy approaches from the sw.
These features will interact with moist, unstable air over the area
to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly this
afternoon and evening. Given the abundant moisture available,
locally heavy rain is possible but antecedent soil and stream
conditions should preclude flooding widespread enough to warrant a
watch attm. Highs today should reach the upper 80s to around 90 with
lows tonight in the low to mid 70s.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The mid level pattern for the weekend will consist of
a broad southwest flow with intervals of showers and thunderstorms
across the area. The highest pops reside in the afternoon and
evening hours assisted by the mesoscale features of the sea breeze
and other convectively produced outflow boundaries. Afternoon high
temperatures...highly dependent on convective coverage should reach
the lower 90s Saturday and cool off a bit Sunday.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Only subtle changes to the mid level pattern for next
week as would be expected this time of year. Medium range guidance
is in better agreement on the Bermuda/Azores ridge pushing or more
like wobbling back to the west. As a result pops trend more toward
climatology in time. Temperatures appear to hover around or just a
little above climatology.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Terminals mainly VFR this morning with the exception of FLO which is
currently OVC at 300 FT.  Guidance suggests we may see more low cigs
develop, particularly inland so have included sub 500 FT cigs at
FLO/LBT before sunrise.  Expect mainly VFR after sunrise except when
showers and storms fire back up by early to mid afternoon. Showers
and storms with possible tempo MVFR/IFR cigs will possible at times
from about 18Z through the end of the valid taf period. For now,
have prob groups for several hours followed by VCTS. Despite
the incoming weather, terminals will be VFR most of the 18Z to
06Z window. Winds will be light.

Extended Outlook...Potential for afternoon and evening MVFR/IFR from
showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...
Outside showers and storms, expect S to SW winds generally less than
15 KT with seas of 2 to 4 FT.


Saturday through Tuesday...
Deep summertime pattern will be in place for the marine
community for the extent of the forecast. South to mostly southwest
winds of 10-15 knots can be expected perhaps still a bit on the
higher end of the range this weekend. Significant seas will be 2-4
feet.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...31
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...31
MARINE...SHK/31