Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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610 FXUS62 KILM 070801 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 401 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm and muggy airmass will remain in place across the east- central Carolinas this week with dangerous heat and humidity possible at times, especially mid week. A bit more unsettled pattern than normal should provide some much-needed rainfall. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Similar conditions to yesterday besides lower temperatures, heat indices staying below Heat Advisory guidelines but still in the 100s. Higher confidence for showers/storms seems to be to our north, but opted to keep highest coverage inland due to the still stalled boundary there and thus better forcing. There will again be the threat for isolated heavy rainfall and localized flooding as the environment hasn`t really changed. Highs in the lower to mid 90s with lows in the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Highlights: *Heat Advisory possible inland Tuesday Confidence: *Moderate Details: The surface weather pattern will feature Atlantic high pressure centered offshore and a stalled front inland while the upper air pattern features weak high pressure generally prevailing with an upper low shifting southwestward not too far offshore. Plentiful moisture will combine with daytime heating, the sea breeze and the aforementioned inland frontal boundary to yield higher than normal rain chances for inland areas. Although isolated damaging winds are possible each afternoon the main concern will be locally heavy rainfall which could yield some flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly-drained areas. Temps are a bit tricky given some uncertainty in rain/cloud coverage but should generally be near to maybe slightly above normal. Looks like heat indices should mostly stay below Heat Advisory levels (105 degrees) Monday but could reach 105+ degrees away from the immediate coast Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Highlights: *Dangerous heat/humidity likely each afternoon, mainly through Thursday *Much-needed rainfall possible, especially inland Confidence: *Moderate Details: A more unsettled pattern than normal is likely given a stalled front/trough over or just west of the area while Atlantic high pressure centered to the east prevails. Most of the rain through Thursday should fall inland with increasing rainfall possible near the coast later in the week as some upper-level energy gets involved. Severe storms will be a low threat with localized flooding likely a slightly bigger threat. Temps look to be near to above normal Wednesday before falling back a bit closer to or even below normal the rest of the week due to increased cloud/rain coverage. Heat Advisories are possible each afternoon through Thursday away from the immediate coast for heat indices likely topping out in the 105-109 degree range. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Restrictions possible at all terminals through daybreak. Showers are coming to an end near KLBT/KFLO but the rainfall they received will lead to fog/stratus overnight, particularly towards the morning. Periodic MVFR stratus may also be possible at KILM. Expecting clearing through the morning 12-16Z. Afternoon cu with a sea breeze again for Sunday, as well as shower/storm chances mainly near inland terminals. Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to prevail outside of convection. Early morning fog and low clouds are possible each morning, especially where precip falls the previous day. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Sub-SCA conditions. SSW winds near 10 kts will increase to 10-15 kts with the afternoon sea breeze. Weaker winds will yield a weaker SW wind wave than yesterday at 1 ft and 4-5 seconds. The SE swell will be 2 ft at 8-9 seconds with seas generally 2 ft with some 3 footers around 20 nm out. Monday through Thursday...Atlantic high pressure will prevail with a stalled front over or inland of the local marine area. Fairly typical summertime conditions are anticipated with periods of higher winds, mainly from the afternoon/evening sea breeze and nocturnal surging. However, winds should mostly stay below 20 kt with seas mostly 3 ft or less so we are not expecting any Small Craft Advisories. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...LEW SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...LEW MARINE...RJB/LEW