Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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093 FXUS62 KILM 040050 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 850 PM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will move off the East Coast, allowing warmer and more humid air to return to the Carolinas later this week. Daytime heat indices could exceed 105 degrees beginning Friday. Thunderstorm chances will increase this weekend as a cold front stalls inland from the coast. && .UPDATE... No major updates made to the forecast at this time. Updated aviation discussion below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure continues to provide seasonable temperatures and drier weather. Light winds tonight, behind daytime dew point recovery, could lead to patchy fog. This will mainly be a concern for inland area and areas along the southern Grand Strand where moisture advection has been best today. High pressure will gradually shift southward tonight and into the July 4th. Direct onshore flow should allow for warmer and more humid conditions on Thursday. Highs on Thursday will soar into the low and mid 90s across the area. Subsidence inversion will still be present aloft and this should keep the area dry. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Lingering mid-upper high pressure ridge from the southwest through end of the work week, while southerly low level flow strengthens around building Bermuda high. Highs Friday afternoon in the mid to upper 90s (away from immediate coast) will combine with increased humidity (dewpoints well into the 70s) to bring elevated heat risk during the day and likely Heat Advisory with heat indices forecasted at 105-110F. Subsidence along the coast should keep most of the coastal counties dry Friday, while widely scattered thunderstorms develop inland (mainly along I-95) in the afternoon/evening hours. Low temps Thursday and Friday night above normal in the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The mid-upper ridge gets squeezed out over the weekend between an upper low offshore and a longwave trough to the northwest. A cold front moves into the western Carolinas Saturday before slowing to a crawl, moving into the central Carolinas on Sunday as high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley. Scattered thunderstorms forecasted both Saturday and Sunday, with increased moisture due to proximity of front Sunday bringing more cloud cover and potentially less instability. Heat advisory again looks likely Saturday with similar conditions to Friday (highs in mid-upper 90s and heat indices of 105- 110F), with temps a few degrees cooler on Sunday. Low temps continue above normal. Bermuda high pressure is well established early next week, maintaining elevated dewpoints through the long term. High temps look to remain above normal (in the low to mid 90s), with forecasted heat indices 100-105F each day. Upper trough lingers to the north/northwest, with a few impulses rounding the base of the trough next week. Combined with sea breeze and Piedmont trough, expecting a typical summertime pattern of diurnal storm potential. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly expecting VFR but can`t rule out intermittent MVFR CIGs at coastal terminals and possible lowered VSBYs at KFLO due to recent rains. KLBT has lower chances for lowered VSBYs. Tried to hint at what level the clouds will be at coastal terminals and the timing, but the coverage will be the question. CIGs could become broken at times, particularly towards morning, but not expecting this to be the predominant condition. VFR expected for Thursday. Extended Outlook...VFR through the end of the week outside of the potential for morning fog and stratus. Slight chance of flight restrictions this weekend as chances for convection return. && .MARINE... Through Thursday...High pressure to our north will gradually shift southward tonight and Thursday. Onshore flow will weaken overnight and turn southeasterly throughout the day on Thursday. NE swell dissipates early Thursday, but long-period swells from distant Hurricane Beryl will be increasing across the area. Originally arriving tonight as 1 foot, 17 second swells, these swells will become more frequent into Thursday. Swells around 1-2 feet peak late Thursday with a period of around 12-14 seconds. In addition to these long-period swells, SE swell from the Bermuda high begin to increase Thursday evening, originating at 2 feet. Boaters should take this unsettled and varied sea state into account when planning for their July 4th activities. Thursday Night through Sunday...Southerly winds persist around Bermuda high pressure Thursday night, through the weekend, and into next week. Seas around 3 feet through Saturday, lowering to 2-3 ft Sunday, primarily long period ESE swells from Beryl through Saturday with wind chop. Sunday will primarily be an 8 second SE swell. Chance for overnight/early morning convection over the coastal waters Saturday and Sunday nights. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...LEW NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...VAO LONG TERM...VAO AVIATION...LEW MARINE...VAO/21