Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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109 FXUS62 KILM 050536 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 136 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure offshore will continue to bring warmer and more humid air into the Carolinas. Daytime heat indices could exceed 105 degrees beginning Friday. Thunderstorm chances will increase this weekend into early next week as a cold front stalls inland. && .UPDATE... The Coastal Flood Advisory from earlier tonight was allowed to expire at 11 PM EDT. Otherwise, no major changes coming down the track at just after 1:30 AM EDT. New forecast package should be ready within the next two hours or so. Elsewhere, updated 06Z TAF discussion found below. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... A quiet but hot near term forecast as a north-south elongated high offshore acts as a heat and moisture pump into the Southeastern U.S. Light S winds tonight should preclude any fog development while also leading to just enough mixing to keep highs in the mid 70s. It`s worth noting that the WRF is alone in depicting a shortwave-induced line of showers into the Cape Fear region between 09 and 12Z but the moistening it shows in its forecast soundings looked unrealistically aggressive. As tomorrow`s southerly winds get bolstered slightly by a Piedmont trough temperatures and dewpoints will rise such that advisory- worthy heat index values (105-109) will be realized away from the immediate beaches. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Hotter and more humid weather will continue on Saturday with temps into the mid 90s and heat index values reaching Heat Advisory thresholds inland of the beaches. The day will start out so warm, near 80 in spots, that we may even see Heat Warning criteria reached for an hour or so before clouds and convection increases. The upper level ridge will get nudged eastward as broad mid to upper level trough over northern CONUS pushes a cold front eastward. At the sfc, high pressure will continue to feed warm and increasingly moist air into the Carolinas. Overall, Moisture will pool ahead of this front in deep S-SW flow with pcp water values upwards of 2 inches with dewpoint temps in the mid 70s over the area. This will increase chances of convection into Sat aftn and early evening mainly focused inland with the main threat of heavy rainfall in weak steering flow, producing localized flooding in places. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The upper ridge across the Southeast gets squeezed out a bit between upper trough to the west and upper low spinning to the east early next week. The greatest moisture axis will push eastward ahead of the stalling front to the west and align itself over the eastern Carolinas with pcp water values upwards of 2 inches focused across the eastern Carolinas. May end up being more in the way of clouds along the coast on Sunday with storms focused along stalled front inland, but in general, should see diurnal localized convection each day with main threat of localized flooding. May see some subsidence on back end of the upper low help to limit convection over the area Mon or Tues before next trough and front reaches the Carolinas Wed into Thurs. Overall, a very warm and moist summertime air mass will remain in place with better chc of convection on Sun for the coast and slightly less hot temps due to clouds and convection on Sun. May flirt with Heat Advisory conditions through the week, but should be affected by clouds and convection through the week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure off the coast will maintain generally light southerly flow through the 06Z TAF period. Mid/upper ridging overhead should keep showers and thunderstorms at bay. Some broken cumulus at 5000-6000ft is possible over the next few hours. Extended Outlook...VFR through the end of the week outside of the potential for morning fog and stratus. Slight chance of flight restrictions this weekend and into early next week as chances for convection return. && .MARINE... Through Friday...Tonights S to SW flow will remain quite light and Beryl swells will be the dominant wave. Heading into tomorrow the swell energy will be abating while a developing Piedmont trough raises wind speed by about a category. Friday night through Tuesday...Atlantic high pressure will prevail with a cold front likely stalling out inland early next week. Although winds will be elevated at times, mainly each afternoon due to the sea breeze, they should mostly stay 20 kt or less. Seas will stay 4 ft or less with wave periods diminishing through the period as the SE swells subside. Thus, not expecting any Small Craft Advisories. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High Risk of rip currents continues through Friday for Cape Fear northward, and with Beryl swell continuing into Saturday expect at least a moderate risk then. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...IGB NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...IGB MARINE...MBB/RGZ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM