709
FXUS62 KILM 051747
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
147 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure offshore will bring unusually warm and humid air
into the Carolinas through the rest of the week. Rain chances
will increase this weekend into next week as a cold front stalls
inland with just a bit of a break in the heat next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes needed with this update. Heat indices have
reached or exceeded advisory criteria across many of the inland
zones and this should continue through the afternoon. A mainly
fair weather cumulus field has developed especially in the SC
zones with some becoming agitated. Isolated showers and perhaps
a thunderstorm remain possible, especially across inland areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest surface analysis includes the same old elongated high
pressure that lingers offshore, which is providing a constant flow
of warm and moist air across the Southeast and mid-Atlantic. Upper
ridge still continues to sit on the Deep South. Heights at 500mb
should sweat it out somewhere around 591-592 dam, which is right
around the 90th percentile, per the SPC Sounding Climatology page at
MHX. Piedmont trough will help give the southerly flow a bit of a
boost by this afternoon, which will only help to jack up the heat
and humidity just a bit more.

Widespread heat indices in the triple digits today. We easily hit
Heat Advisory criteria, which kicks off at 11 AM EDT this morning
and expires at 8 PM EDT. Chances for scattered showers and storms
this afternoon looked better in previous forecasts, but I don`t
think we get there today. The forcing ahead of a cold front in the
Ohio River Valley doesn`t look as good as it once did, and
ironically, I think there`s enough dry air aloft to suppress
moisture building in the column to produce showers and storms.
Subsidence is certainly weaker, but it`s still there. At any rate,
an isolated shower or storm is possible inland, but there doesn`t
appear to be much relief.

Outside of the heat indices, this could be a day in which we tie or
break record high temperatures, particularly inland. Here`s a look
at our four major climate sites. The first number is the forecast
high for today, and then record high and the year are in
parentheses.

Wilmington, NC (ILM): 95F (100F, 1902)
North Myrtle Beach, SC (CRE): 91F (97F, 1996)
Florence, SC (FLO): 100F (103F, 1990)
Lumberton, NC (LBT): 100F (101F, 1993)

Drink water, wear light, loose-fitting clothing, and take frequent
breaks from the outdoors. Stay frosty.

Lows tonight in the mid-to-upper 70s for most. Typical cool spots
may dip down into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Highlights:
*Unseasonably hot/humid through Saturday with Heat Advisories likely
away from the coast
*Flooding from heavy rainfall possible Saturday, mainly near/west of
I-95

Confidence:
*Moderate to High

Details:
A cold front will be advancing east toward the area Saturday
and the increased moisture, instability and forcing will make
for decent rain chances well inland (mainly near/west of I-95)
during the afternoon/evening. Although an isolated pulse-type
severe storm is possible, the bigger threat will likely be
flooding from heavy rain given the abundant moisture and weak
storm motions. Similar conditions are also expected Sunday. The
onshore flow should keep coastal areas mainly dry through the
period.

Above normal temps through Saturday night should fall back closer to
normal Sunday due to increased cloud cover. Heat indices should peak
mostly below Excessive Heat Warning criteria (110 degrees) Saturday
with Heat Advisories likely for areas away from the coast. Cooler
temps Sunday should mean heat indices staying below Heat Advisory
levels (105 degrees).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Highlights:
*Dangerous heat/humidity possible each afternoon with Heat
Advisories possible
*Unsettled pattern with much-needed rainfall possible, especially
inland

Confidence:
*Moderate

Details:
Should see a rather unsettled pattern with a stalled
front/trough inland. As is typical for this time of year deep
layer shear is weak and thus significant chances of severe
storms are not expected. However, the wetter pattern could lead
to localized flooding. Although temps will be held down a bit
closer to normal the high dewpoints could still push heat
indices above Heat Advisory levels (105-109 degrees) each
afternoon away from the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR is expected through the TAF period, although some brief
MVFR mist at Florence and Lumberton cannot be ruled out near
sunrise. Otherwise, high pressure offshore and an approaching
front will keep the pressure gradient relatively tight and
thereby keep winds going all night.

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to prevail outside of
convection. A cold front is forecast to stall across the
Piedmont amidst plenty of moisture, which should provide a
greater coverage of convection than normal, particularly for the
inland terminals. Early morning fog and low clouds are possible
each morning, especially where precip falls the previous day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...SSW winds linger through tonight, with gusts up to
20kts this afternoon and evening. Seas 2-3ft between wind waves and
then long period southeasterly swells from Hurricane Beryl. These
swells should decrease throughout the day.

Saturday through Tuesday...Atlantic high pressure will prevail with
a cold front stalling out inland early next week. Although winds
will be elevated at times, mainly each afternoon due to the sea
breeze, they should mostly stay 20 kt or less. Seas will mostly stay
3 ft or less. Thus, not expecting any Small Craft Advisories at
this juncture.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: High Risk of rip currents continues today
for Cape Fear northward with a moderate risk southward through
Georgetown County due to lingering swells. An enhanced rip risk
could linger into Saturday, especially for east-facing beaches.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-
     105-107-109.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-055-058-059.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...ABW
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...RJB/IGB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...