199
FXUS63 KICT 061919
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
219 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Risk for locally damaging winds this evening in central KS.

- Periodic rounds of convection, some strong with locally heavy
  rainfall late tonight through Sunday night.

- Generally drier with a warming as we progress thru next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Broad troughing encompassed the interior conus with several
shortwaves traversing thru the flow this weekend which will
accentuate the upper trof from the Upper Midwest across the
lower Plains by Sunday night. A moderately unstable airmass and
likewise bulk shear will foster severe convection thru the late
afternoon from across northwest Kansas. Despite this broken line
of convection encountering somewhat less instability as it
moves east-southeast by early evening into west central/north
central Kansas, steep lapse rates will promote strong downdrafts
and storm-scale outflow with potential to affect northwest
portions of the forecast area, especially Russell/Lincoln/
Barton counties early this evening before weakening. Latest runs
of the HRRR/RAP lend more support/confidence in this scenario
thru the early evening. The forecast is a bit more tricky later
tonight into Sunday as there remains several plausible
convective scenarios. However, there seems to be general support
for additional convection overnight, possibly aided by
mesoscale influences, mainly across portions of western Kansas,
which will tend to move/propagate into western portions of
central and south central Kansas toward dawn. A few strong
storms will be possible along with locally heavy rainfall with
increased precipitable water (PWAT) values. While model trends
continue to support pushing the effective surface frontal
boundary into Oklahoma on Sunday, except perhaps far southeast
Kansas, the atmosphere will remain modestly unstable even with
limited surface heating across southern Kansas. This in combo
with decent cloud bearing shear will still support a few strong
storms from elevated and any quasi-surface based convection.
Rather high PWAT values will also foster efficient rainfall
rates as well into Sunday night. Convective chances will linger
into Monday within the mean upper trough over the area.

The southern portion of the aforementioned upper trof looks to
help steer the remnants of Beryl northeastward across the Ark-
La-Tex and Arkansas thru early next week. The northern portion
of the upper trof looks to linger across the Upper Midwest and
lower Missouri Valley through at least mid-week as the center of
the western conus upper ridge moves gradually east across the
Great Basin toward the Four Corners region. While non-zero,
chances for organized precip seem somewhat more limited with
temperatures gradually moderating closer to seasonal climo by
Friday.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail through much of the TAF
period, however temporary reductions to MVFR or lower will be
possible in showers and storms that will impact the area this
evening thru end of the period.

Storms, some severe capable of damaging winds (60-70mph) and
large hail (quarters) will be possible this evening across
central KS. Additional showers and storms are expected
southeastward after 06z and continue thru much of the TAF period
with chance of precipitation greater than 50% across much of the
area.

South to southeast winds are expected to continue across the
area, however there is a chance an outflow boundary from this
evenings convection may temporary turn winds more northerly.
Thus confidence in wind direction is lower. Amendments will be
made as necessary should outflow induced winds impact sites.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...KMB