008
FXUS63 KICT 071103
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
603 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic rounds of thunderstorms, some strong with locally heavy
  rain through tonight.

- Warming trend as we move through the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop within the instability
axis across southwest Kansas where persistent low level moisture
transport is focused. This area of showers and thunderstorms may
gradually propagate southeastward into parts of south central Kansas
while building southward into OK during the morning hours today.
Confidence in how this plays out today remains fairly low. Model
trends continue to indicate a pv anomaly moving into the Central
High Plains allowing another complex of storms to develop early in
the period possibly impacting the area through the day today but
with the effective front likely shifting south of the area
confidence in how widespread this activity will be remains fairly
low. We continue to see the potential for locally heavy rain given
PWATs progged to climb into the 1.5-2 inch range across southern
Kansas this afternoon and tonight. Persistent mid-lvl warm air
advection may allow some storms to linger over mainly southern
Kansas this evening before the focus shifts south of the area
later tonight.

Some low pops were maintained across mainly southeast KS on Monday-
Monday evening as a stable post-frontal airmass gradually builds
over the area. Seasonably cool temperatures are anticipated through
Monday with highs in the low to mid 80s for most areas. Remnant
tropical moisture lifting rapidly northeast may skirt far southeast
KS Monday night although better chances for showers and storms on
Monday night are expected to remain east of the area.

Moderating temperatures and dry weather is expected to return on
Tuesday while the mid/upper ridge over the Central Great Basin will
gradually build eastward bringing a return to above normal
temperatures late in the week and into the upcoming weekend. High
temperatures by Fri-Sat are expected to return into the mid and
upper 90s for many areas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Light rain showers will affect parts of south central Kansas
this morning. Otherwise a upper level system will move across
the region this afternoon with scattered to numerous
showers/storms expected to develop across central and southern
Kansas. Confidence is low on winds given that they will remain
light and switch directions with developing showers and storms.
Any activity that develops during the day should begin to
diminish during the night time hours.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ