378
FXUS63 KICT 080530
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1230 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Somewhat transient/localized convective chances thru this
  evening, then mainly limited to southeast Kansas Monday.

- Conditional chances into Tuesday in far southeast Kansas tied
  to track of remnant Beryl.

- Generally drier with a warming trend later in the week.

- Little relief for the drought-stricken areas thru day 10.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Unfortunately, areas that need rainfall the most may continue to
miss out, though there is still limited hope this evening thru
early Monday before chances diminish closer to zero the rest of
the week.

Diurnal recovery resulting in modest instability late this
afternoon/early evening may continue to support spotty
convection in time and space across the area, with chances
overnight shifting closer to the Oklahoma border or just south
of the area. Limited convective chances will linger into Monday
within the mean upper trough over the area, mainly across
southeast Kansas where modest cape/shear will reside. It appears
the remnants of Beryl may come a bit closer to far southeast
Kansas for Monday night and Tuesday with center of the track
moving across the Ozarks, so will linger small PoPs in our far
southeast Kansas counties.

Otherwise, the back side of the northern portion of the upper trof
looks to linger from the Upper Midwest into the lower Missouri
Valley through Thursday keeping eastern Kansas in light northerly
flow aloft. However, the center of the western upper ridge will
continue to migrate eastward across the central Rockies into the
central high Plains by the weekend. Rising geopotential heights and
persistent southerly low level flow will allow a more typical Summer
time heat to build across the area again with temperatures returning
to and slightly above seasonal climo. This also portends to a
dry weather regime with some expansion in drought conditions
more probable. Unfortunately, this looks to continue even into
the 8 to 10 day periods.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Light winds and VFR will prevail through the 24-hr period. Some
transient mid and high level clouds are possible at times but
given isolated coverage of showers, no mention is planned in
area TAFs.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...MWM