Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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793 FXUS63 KICT 020541 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1241 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerous heat will continue through early this evening and again on Tuesday. - Severe storms possible late Tue afternoon and evening along a weak cold front. - Pattern looks to remain active for both Wed and Thu with severe storms and flooding possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Water vapor imagery currently shows upper troughing moving into the Northern Rockies and extending down into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging is centered across the Arklatex region. At the surface, warm front continues to lift north and is currently situated from NW KS into southwest MO. Meanwhile, low pressure continues to strengthen over northeast CO/far western Nebraska. Storms are expected to develop shortly from Western Nebraska into northwest KS ahead of the shortwave with this line of storms forecast to slowly slide east tonight. Some of this activity may clip Russell/Lincoln counties generally around 05z, but confidence remains high that the more widespread convection will remain over Nebraska. Upper trough is expected to continue tracking east and will be moving out across the Central/Northern Plains on Tue. This will allow a cold front to sag south which will likely be aided by outflow from overnight convection. Current thinking is that storms will develop along it generally after 18z Tue and likely closer to 21z with the front by this time forecast to generally stretch northwest of the Kansas Turnpike. With CAPE values 2500-3000J/KG and 30-40kts of effective shear, severe storms will be possible with large hail and downburst winds the main threats. This activity will likely linger into the evening hours Tue. By Wed morning, another piece of energy is expected to be diving southeast across the Northern Intermountain and into the Great Basin by the afternoon hours. Confidence is high that an MCS will develop out across the Central High Plains on Wed evening ahead of the unseasonably strong shortwave. This will likely be across Western Nebraska into Northwest KS with this activity tracking east overnight. Another area to watch for storms Wed will be over far southeast KS into the Ozark region, where a remnant outflow boundary maybe situated. As the shortwave tracks across the Central Plains, there is good model agreement in a cold front surging south across the forecast area and will likely be the focus for storms Thu afternoon/evening. Current thinking is that the front will be near or southeast of the KS Turnpike when storms develop with storms likely continuing into the evening hours Thu. Deep layer shear will not be overly impressive with this activity, but there should be enough instability for some strong/severe storms and heavy rainfall. We should finally get a break from storm chances for Fri-Sat as the upper impulse lifts into the Great Lakes region. We then look to get into northwest flow aloft with a few weak upper perturbations sliding through that should allow for at least some small storm chances starting Sunday. After Tue, we look to return closer to seasonal temperatures with the exception being Thu across far southern KS, which may flirt with the century mark again. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1237 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. Southerly winds remain gusty with speeds up to 30 kt. As such, LLWS concerns have been mitigated despite a 45-50 kt LLJ near 2.0 kft. A cold front will push into the area this afternoon, shifting winds to the north and northeast at RSL, GBD, SLN, and HUT. Uncertainty arises whether the front makes it through ICT and CNU by the end of the period. Thunderstorm chances increase around 00Z and beyond, especially at HUT and ICT. Addressed this potential with PROB 30 groups for now. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. && $$ DISCUSSION...RBL AVIATION...BMB