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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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536 FXUS63 KICT 042315 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 615 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few severe storms possible across far southeast KS late this afternoon and evening. - Heat indices near 105 will continue this afternoon across far southeast KS. - Seasonable temperatures expected over the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A an outflow boundary/effective front continues to be draped across portions of far southeast Kansas this afternoon. This front has been quite slow moving most of the day thus far. Enough heating/destabilization is expected along and ahead of the front this afternoon to continue to warrant the risk of a few severe storms. Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and heavy rain look to be the primary concern with modest ML & DCAPE combo along with anomalously high PW and steep lapse rates. Thinking initiation time would be in the 21-01Z timeframe. Activity is expected to drift southeast in northern Oklahoma by tonight with much quieter conditions expected area wide overnight. For those with outdoor Independence Day activities planned for tonight, expect 10pm temperatures to be in the 70s with a light north wind. A quiet day is expected for much of the day tomorrow with temperatures expected to remain slightly below seasonable normal (92) in the mid and upper 80s. Ridging is expected to remain over the western CONUS over the next several days while slowly amplifying. Meanwhile, broad troughing will remain draped across mid america with several shortwave perturbations progged to pass through the Plains over the next week. These will bring intermittent chances for showers and storms along with seasonable temperatures to the area over the next week. The next best chance (30%) of showers and storms across the area will return on Saturday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions are expected for this TAF period. The only terminal that may see some shower or thunderstorm activity is KCNU and this is only expected in the first three to six hours of the TAF period. At this time, expect the main area of thunderstorm activity to remain to the south and east but could see an isolated cell in the KCNU area. At this time, confidence is too low to place it in the TAF and if thunderstorms reach KCNU, main threat will be winds in the 40kt range and very heavy rain reducing VSBYs. By 06Z tonight, all threat of thunderstorms will end leaving VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF period. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KMB AVIATION...ELM