425
FXUS63 KICT 082011
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
311 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms tonight across southeast KS with pockets of
  heavy rain possible.

- Return to heat for the end of the work week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Currently have what is left of Beryl tracking across far
southeast TX with shortwave troughing extending from the Western
Great Lakes region into north central KS. Meanwhile, upper
ridging continues to hold strong over the Western CONUS. At the
surface, have a weak area of high pressure from western Nebraska
through Western KS with a stationary front extending from
central MO into eastern OK.

Band of showers and storms currently stretches from southern MO
into southeast OK and is associated with low level convergence
from Beryl. This area of showers and storms will continue to
slowly lift northeast and will affect parts of southeast KS
tonight. With a very high PW airmass in place, the main threat
tonight will be high rainfall rates and very localized flooding.
However, confidence is high that the more widespread flooding
will be east and southeast of the forecast area. By Tue morning,
remnants of Beryl will be tracking across southern AR and into
far southeast MO by the late afternoon hours. Still looks like
the bulk of the rainfall with this system will stay east of our
area, affecting much of southern MO on Tue. This system will
continue moving quickly off to the northeast and will be moving
into the Great Lakes region on Wed with good model agreement on
another piece of energy diving south across far Eastern Nebraska
and IA on Wed. This impulse will also stay far enough east to
limit rainfall chances.

For the end of the work week, the Western CONUS ridge will start
to slide slowly northeast and will allow warmer 850mb temps to
also migrate east. So starting Fri we are looking for a return
to above normal temps with many locations getting back to the
century mark by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. The
remnants of Hurricane Beryl should yield scattered
thunderstorms across southeast KS this evening with potential
impacts at CNU. Otherwise, light and variable winds will
prevail. There remains slight chance for a brief period of MVFR
CIGS at CNU, ICT, and HUT tonight as the remnants progress just
southeast of the area. Confidence is too low to introduce any
prevailing groups at this time.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RBL
AVIATION...BRB