010
FXUS63 KICT 070747
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
247 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic rounds of thunderstorms, some strong with locally heavy
  rain through tonight.

- Warming trend as we move through the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop within the instability
axis across southwest Kansas where persistent low level moisture
transport is focused. This area of showers and thunderstorms may
gradually propagate southeastward into parts of south central Kansas
while building southward into OK during the morning hours today.
Confidence in how this plays out today remains fairly low. Model
trends continue to indicate a pv anomaly moving into the Central
High Plains allowing another complex of storms to develop early in
the period possibly impacting the area through the day today but
with the effective front likely shifting south of the area
confidence in how widespread this activity will be remains fairly
low. We continue to see the potential for locally heavy rain given
PWATs progged to climb into the 1.5-2 inch range across southern
Kansas this afternoon and tonight. Persistent mid-lvl warm air
advection may allow some storms to linger over mainly southern
Kansas this evening before the focus shifts south of the area
later tonight.

Some low pops were maintained across mainly southeast KS on Monday-
Monday evening as a stable post-frontal airmass gradually builds
over the area. Seasonably cool temperatures are anticipated through
Monday with highs in the low to mid 80s for most areas. Remnant
tropical moisture lifting rapidly northeast may skirt far southeast
KS Monday night although better chances for showers and storms on
Monday night are expected to remain east of the area.

Moderating temperatures and dry weather is expected to return on
Tuesday while the mid/upper ridge over the Central Great Basin will
gradually build eastward bringing a return to above normal
temperatures late in the week and into the upcoming weekend. High
temperatures by Fri-Sat are expected to return into the mid and
upper 90s for many areas.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Diminishing showers/storms over south central Kansas will
continue overnight. Meanwhile scattered showers and storms look
to redevelop Sunday afternoon across the region and will
introduce some PROB30s for storms. Otherwise wind direction
will be difficult to pin down with dying convection early this
morning and how things recover for Sunday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ