Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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847 FXUS63 KICT 041956 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 256 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few severe storms possible across far southeast KS late this afternoon and evening. - Heat indices near 105 will continue this afternoon across far southeast KS. - Seasonable temperatures expected over the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A an outflow boundary/effective front continues to be draped across portions of far southeast Kansas this afternoon. This front has been quite slow moving most of the day thus far. Enough heating/destabilization is expected along and ahead of the front this afternoon to continue to warrant the risk of a few severe storms. Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and heavy rain look to be the primary concern with modest ML & DCAPE combo along with anomalously high PW and steep lapse rates. Thinking initiation time would be in the 21-01Z timeframe. Activity is expected to drift southeast in northern Oklahoma by tonight with much quieter conditions expected area wide overnight. For those with outdoor Independence Day activities planned for tonight, expect 10pm temperatures to be in the 70s with a light north wind. A quiet day is expected for much of the day tomorrow with temperatures expected to remain slightly below seasonable normal (92) in the mid and upper 80s. Ridging is expected to remain over the western CONUS over the next several days while slowly amplifying. Meanwhile, broad troughing will remain draped across mid america with several shortwave perturbations progged to pass through the Plains over the next week. These will bring intermittent chances for showers and storms along with seasonable temperatures to the area over the next week. The next best chance (30%) of showers and storms across the area will return on Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Patchy MVFR cigs in southern Kansas will lift/become VFR during this afternoon. Scattered convection is expected along a front across southeast Kansas late this afternoon into the early evening, though coverage low enough to limit mention to VCSH for now at KCNU. North to northwest winds will prevail across the area thru the forecast valid period. KED && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KMB AVIATION...KED