Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS
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863 FXUS63 KICT 050522 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 1222 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few severe storms possible across far southeast KS late this afternoon and evening. - Heat indices near 105 will continue this afternoon across far southeast KS. - Seasonable temperatures expected over the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 A an outflow boundary/effective front continues to be draped across portions of far southeast Kansas this afternoon. This front has been quite slow moving most of the day thus far. Enough heating/destabilization is expected along and ahead of the front this afternoon to continue to warrant the risk of a few severe storms. Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and heavy rain look to be the primary concern with modest ML & DCAPE combo along with anomalously high PW and steep lapse rates. Thinking initiation time would be in the 21-01Z timeframe. Activity is expected to drift southeast in northern Oklahoma by tonight with much quieter conditions expected area wide overnight. For those with outdoor Independence Day activities planned for tonight, expect 10pm temperatures to be in the 70s with a light north wind. A quiet day is expected for much of the day tomorrow with temperatures expected to remain slightly below seasonable normal (92) in the mid and upper 80s. Ridging is expected to remain over the western CONUS over the next several days while slowly amplifying. Meanwhile, broad troughing will remain draped across mid america with several shortwave perturbations progged to pass through the Plains over the next week. These will bring intermittent chances for showers and storms along with seasonable temperatures to the area over the next week. The next best chance (30%) of showers and storms across the area will return on Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions expected for all TAF sites across central/southern Kansas for the next 24hrs with light north winds and clear skies. && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KMB AVIATION...CDJ