354
FXUS64 KHUN 061121
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
621 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Showers across the region have come to an end early this morning as
a cold front continues to push southeast through the local area.
High pressure will become the bigger influence in local weather
today, as an upper low lifts north through the Great Lakes region
and upper troughing broadens out over the Midwest. Drier northerly
flow will help thin cloud cover as we head through the morning
hours and into the afternoon, making for a pretty pleasant day for
early July. Will have to monitor for patchy fog development early
this morning, but that will largely depend on the amount of
clearing we are able to achieve. With the front and associated
moisture axis to our south, have maintained a dry forecast through
the afternoon except for very low chance (<20%) PoPs across
southern Cullman. Although afternoon highs will still reach the
low 90s today, lower dewpoints will thankfully keep heat index
values below 100 degrees, topping out in the mid to upper 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The sfc front will be positioned to our south tonight, keeping
dry conditions in place with partly cloudy skies. The lower
humidity should prevent any fog from being an issue, and overnight
lows will drop to the upper 60s/lower 70s. In fact, this looks to
be the "coolest" and nicest night for the next several days, so
be sure to enjoy the lower humidity while it lasts. On Sunday, the
influence of broad upper troughing begins to shift back to our
north, and the aforementioned front will begin to track north
through the area during the day. Still believe most of the area
will be dry as the better moisture remains to our south and east
over central GA, but will keep a low end (20-30%) PoP for our
southeastern counties just in case isolated showers/storms do clip
these areas.

From there, eyes will shift a bit more toward where exactly the
eventual remnants of Beryl track. Over the past 24 hours, have
seen a more northward shift in the track and one that would be
favorable for at least some beneficial rain for portions of the
Tennessee Valley. There are some differences regarding the
northward surge of moisture ahead of Beryl, and that leads to
lower confidence in shower/storm chances Monday through the day
Tuesday. Have stuck with blended guidance for PoPs during this
timeframe, ranging from 60-70% during the afternoon hours. Looking
at deterministic output and given the lack of stronger forcing
ahead of the tropical system this seems a bit overdone, but given
the uncertainty regarding Beryl will favor blends and ensembles
over any one output. Any rainfall tied to Beryl currently looks
to start moving into the area late Tuesday afternoon.

Outside of this, expect mostly cloudy conditions with highs in the
low to mid 90s through Tuesday with lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For now, it looks like the majority of the rainfall we will get
from Beryl will fall into the Tuesday night through Wednesday
timeframe. As Beryl moves inland through eastern TX, it is
expected to be ingested within the upper trough extending
southwestward through the Midwest and into western TX. This favors
a northeast shift in track and would currently favor a heavier
rain axis stretching from northern MS through northwest AL and
into Nashville. Any tornado/strong wind threat appears to be
confined well to our southwest as the system will weaken
considerably by the time it reaches this far north. Flooding looks
to be the primary potential impact from this system, and will
hopefully have a better feel for the track once Beryl makes
landfall early next week. Highs on Wednesday look to be quite
cool, only topping out in the low to mid 80s as rain and cloud
cover limit diurnal heating.

The remainder of the long term forecast will feature seasonably
cool but warming temperatures as high pressure builds west from
the Atlantic and upper ridging keeps us in a warm-sectored
airmass. Without any signal for stronger synoptic forcing, will
keep PoPs on the lower side (20-40%) for primarily diurnally
driven showers and storms each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with few to
scattered high clouds and light northerly winds becoming more
northeasterly by tomorrow morning. No fog is expected overnight
due to lower humidity over the area.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...25
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25