090
FXUS64 KHUN 061346
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
846 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 846 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Mostly sunny skies will persist today as a surface weak cold front
stalls to our south over Central Alabama. While a few sparse
showers have been observed earlier this morning from Cullman to
DeKalb counties, the morning update has dried out the rest of the
area a little more rapidly. A rogue shower or storm is possible
south of the TN river this afternoon, but chances will stay very
low (10-15%). Otherwise, temperatures will climb back into the low
to mid 90s this afternoon with the notable difference of dew
points in the mid 60s and a light wind from the north, helping it
feel a little better outside than it has previously this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The sfc front will be positioned to our south tonight, keeping
dry conditions in place with partly cloudy skies. The lower
humidity should prevent any fog from being an issue, and overnight
lows will drop to the upper 60s/lower 70s. In fact, this looks to
be the "coolest" and nicest night for the next several days, so
be sure to enjoy the lower humidity while it lasts. On Sunday, the
influence of broad upper troughing begins to shift back to our
north, and the aforementioned front will begin to track north
through the area during the day. Still believe most of the area
will be dry as the better moisture remains to our south and east
over central GA, but will keep a low end (20-30%) PoP for our
southeastern counties just in case isolated showers/storms do clip
these areas.

From there, eyes will shift a bit more toward where exactly the
eventual remnants of Beryl track. Over the past 24 hours, have
seen a more northward shift in the track and one that would be
favorable for at least some beneficial rain for portions of the
Tennessee Valley. There are some differences regarding the
northward surge of moisture ahead of Beryl, and that leads to
lower confidence in shower/storm chances Monday through the day
Tuesday. Have stuck with blended guidance for PoPs during this
timeframe, ranging from 60-70% during the afternoon hours. Looking
at deterministic output and given the lack of stronger forcing
ahead of the tropical system this seems a bit overdone, but given
the uncertainty regarding Beryl will favor blends and ensembles
over any one output. Any rainfall tied to Beryl currently looks
to start moving into the area late Tuesday afternoon.

Outside of this, expect mostly cloudy conditions with highs in the
low to mid 90s through Tuesday with lows in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For now, it looks like the majority of the rainfall we will get
from Beryl will fall into the Tuesday night through Wednesday
timeframe. As Beryl moves inland through eastern TX, it is
expected to be ingested within the upper trough extending
southwestward through the Midwest and into western TX. This favors
a northeast shift in track and would currently favor a heavier
rain axis stretching from northern MS through northwest AL and
into Nashville. Any tornado/strong wind threat appears to be
confined well to our southwest as the system will weaken
considerably by the time it reaches this far north. Flooding looks
to be the primary potential impact from this system, and will
hopefully have a better feel for the track once Beryl makes
landfall early next week. Highs on Wednesday look to be quite
cool, only topping out in the low to mid 80s as rain and cloud
cover limit diurnal heating.

The remainder of the long term forecast will feature seasonably
cool but warming temperatures as high pressure builds west from
the Atlantic and upper ridging keeps us in a warm-sectored
airmass. Without any signal for stronger synoptic forcing, will
keep PoPs on the lower side (20-40%) for primarily diurnally
driven showers and storms each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with few to
scattered high clouds and light northerly winds becoming more
northeasterly by tomorrow morning. No fog is expected overnight
due to lower humidity over the area.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...25