664
FXUS64 KHUN 062253
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
553 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

By tonight, any remaining showers/storms should gradually come to
an end across far northeast AL as the cold front continues moving
off to the southeast. As drier air continues to seep in from the
north, cloud cover will gradually decrease in coverage. However,
despite partial clearing, the drier airmass should prevent fog
formation. Overnight lows drop down into the upper 60s to lower
70s, a nice change from the last couple of nights where record
high minimum temperatures occurred.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The aformentioned cold front begins to lift back north through
central AL on Sunday. Once again, low chances (20-30%) for
showers and storms are possible, primarily in the afternoon and
evening hours. The greatest chances for precipitation will be in
Cullman, Marshall, Dekalb and Jackson counties due to the
proximity to the front. Heading into the upcoming work week, an
upper level trough begins to dig down across the western Plains.
This feature will ultimately collect TS Beryl and move some of its
precipitation towards the Tennessee Valley. More on this in the
long term discussion. Closer to home, a warm and moist airmass
will once again be situated across northern AL and southern
middle TN. With southerly flow, expect temperatures to peak in
the low to mid 90s on Monday and Tuesday with medium to high
chances (50-70%) for showers and storms each afternoon. Main
hazards with these storms are gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For now, it looks like the majority of the rainfall we will get
from Beryl will fall into the Tuesday night through Wednesday
timeframe. As Beryl moves inland through eastern TX, it is
expected to be ingested within the upper trough extending
southwestward through the Midwest and into western TX. This favors
a northeast shift in track and would currently favor a heavier
rain axis stretching from northern MS through northwest AL and
into Nashville. Any tornado/strong wind threat appears to be
confined well to our southwest as the system will weaken
considerably by the time it reaches this far north. Flooding looks
to be the primary potential impact from this system, and will
hopefully have a better feel for the track once Beryl makes
landfall early next week. Highs on Wednesday look to be quite
cool, only topping out in the low to mid 80s as rain and cloud
cover limit diurnal heating.

The remainder of the long term forecast will feature seasonably
cool but warming temperatures as high pressure builds west from
the Atlantic and upper ridging keeps us in a warm-sectored
airmass. Without any signal for stronger synoptic forcing, will
keep PoPs on the lower side (20-40%) for primarily diurnally
driven showers and storms each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 553 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period at both KMSL and
KHSV with light, variable winds.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GH
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...HC