059
FXUS64 KHUN 071559
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1059 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 906 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

After morning lows in the middle 60s to around 70, temperatures
are warming through the 70s into the lower 80s at this hour.
Visible imagery showers a band of mid and high clouds across MS
which will spread northeast across the TN valley today. At the
surface, northeast-to east flow has helped provided a cooler
morning and will keep dew points in the 60s for most areas today.
Higher dew points in the lower 70s just to our south may tend to
creep northward toward the I-59 corridor this afternoon. This
added moisture along the higher terrain in our far southeast
counties may aid isolated shower and thunderstorm development this
afternoon. Otherwise, expect temperatures to reach the lower to
middle 90s for afternoon highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Tonight, lows are forecast to cool into the low to mid 70s under
mostly clear skies. A very low chance of patchy fog exists along
bodies of water.

Monday, heat will be of concern again as highs climb into the mid
to upper 90s with heat indices in the 100-109 degree range. A Heat
Advisory may be needed in future forecast updates for this time
period to account for this, however, medium chances of storms
(40-60%) and increased cloud cover during the afternoon hours
could provide some relief. With any storm that forms, frequent
lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty to damaging winds will be
potential threats.

Model soundings have begun taking an "inverted V" profile with
steep low level lapse rates in addition to ample CAPE. PWATs are
also forecast to reach 2-2.2", exceeding 90th percentile sounding
climatology per BMX. Storms are likely to be extremely slow as
mean wind speed in model soundings continues to be 5 kts or less.
Therefore, Monday`s storms will be efficient rainfall producers
and will have the potential to reside over an area for a prolonged
period of time. This will cause an increased concern for ponding
of water in low-lying areas and areas of poor drainage. With
extremely little shear, tornadoes are not forecast at this time.
Storms are forecast to subside/weaken with the loss of daytime
heating during the late evening hours.

Tuesday, remnants of Beryl are forecast to potentially impact
portions of the TN Valley, bringing us medium to high chances of
thunderstorms (50-70%) ahead of an upper level trough. However,
models continue to trend in favor of keeping heavier rainfall to
our northwest. Rainfall chances decrease overnight (10-20%) before
returning Wednesday afternoon (30-40%). The Weather Prediction
Center (WPC) has placed most of our area in a Marginal (threat
level 1 out of 4) risk for Excessive Rainfall. This means there is
at least a 5% risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance
within 25 miles of an area within the outlook. Due to the track
continuing to trend to the northwest, we urge everyone to check
back in to the latest guidance as we move into the early work week
on this system and the local forecast for the TN Valley. Heat on
Tuesday and Wednesday will continue to be of concern as heat
indices climb into the upper 90s to lower 100s. However, cloud
cover and rainfall could mitigate the need for heat-related
products.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

The long term period will continue to bring high temperatures in
the 90s. However, heat indices are forecast to remain below heat
product threshold. A warming trend is in store, however, as
temperatures climb into the upper 90s by Saturday. We continue to
encourage everyone to stay hydrated, avoid leaving pets or
children in unattended vehicles, and avoid being outdoors during
the hottest part of the day. Rain chances during this time remain
low due to lack of synoptic forcing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1059 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR flight weather conditions are expected to prevail. However,
isolated SHRA or TSRA are possible southeast of a K4A6-KDCU line
through the period. Thus, none are included in the KHSV and KMSL
TAFs at this time.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....HC
LONG TERM....HC
AVIATION...17