Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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559 FXUS64 KHUN 032303 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 603 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon to our south should tend to die out quickly by sunset before being able to reach our counties, but will monitor these trends this afternoon. For now, it will be a dry forecast. A very warm night is ahead as southerly flow persists. Like this morning, low clouds may redevelop in some areas tonight as well. Overnight lows should be in the lower to middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Thursday will be similar to today, with highs back in the lower to middle 90s (warmest in southern TN and northwest AL). Heat index values will once again reach 105+ in northwest AL, with 95-105 further east. Diurnal convection appears more certain Thursday, plus a very weak shortwave moving east from the Ozarks into KY/TN during the afternoon may be just enough of a trigger to expand coverage Thursday afternoon. Loss of heating will diminish coverage during the evening. However, ongoing convection along a cold front will drop southeast through the area during the day Friday. Although severe weather appears to be a low risk, a few stronger storms with gusty winds and heavy downpours appears likely. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Upper level high pressure will persist over the northern Gulf coast through much of the long term period. Meanwhile, an upper trough over the central CONUS will very slowly begin to shift to the east and northeast over the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes regions early next week. This pattern leaves the Tennessee Valley in a sort of weakness into early next week, with southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front looks to enter the Tennessee Valley Saturday morning and meander over the region through early next week. High pressure looks to build in to the north, with high pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. With these upper level and surface patterns, expect daily chances of showers/storms from Saturday through Tuesday, especially during the peak heating hours of the afternoon. Generally, chances are low to medium (20-50%) each day with the exception of Sunday where chances are low (15-30%). We`ll be keeping an eye on trends for Monday and Tuesday because model guidance suggests that shear will increase to between 20-30 knots. While model instability values are under 1000 J/kg at this point, it`s sufficient for the development of thunderstorms. Overall, what this means is that there is potential for a few stronger storms Monday and Tuesday. Confidence in anything severe is low, but heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds are all possible. As for temperatures, the daily chances of showers and storms may quell the heat a bit this weekend through early next week. Highs on Saturday are forecast to only reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees, whereas Sunday and Monday it`ll be a bit warmer (low 90s). Then, on Tuesday, highs looks to be similar to Saturday. This will result in heat indices generally in the 90s this coming weekend, then mid 90s to around 101-102 degrees in spots Monday and Tuesday. While these values as a whole are a fair bit below Heat Advisory criteria (105-109 degree heat indices), please remember heat safety if you have outdoor plans. Take breaks in the shade and drink plenty of water! && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 603 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 VFR conditions will likely prevail at both terminals through the duration of the TAF period. Tomorrow, diurnal scattered showers and storms will prompt a 40% chance of rain for both terminals. Due to to low confidence in timing and coverage of showers and storms this has been left out of the TAF for now. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ALZ001>010-016. TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ076-096-097. && $$ NEAR TERM...17 SHORT TERM....17 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...RAD