Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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664 FXUS64 KHUN 062253 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 553 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 By tonight, any remaining showers/storms should gradually come to an end across far northeast AL as the cold front continues moving off to the southeast. As drier air continues to seep in from the north, cloud cover will gradually decrease in coverage. However, despite partial clearing, the drier airmass should prevent fog formation. Overnight lows drop down into the upper 60s to lower 70s, a nice change from the last couple of nights where record high minimum temperatures occurred. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 128 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 The aformentioned cold front begins to lift back north through central AL on Sunday. Once again, low chances (20-30%) for showers and storms are possible, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours. The greatest chances for precipitation will be in Cullman, Marshall, Dekalb and Jackson counties due to the proximity to the front. Heading into the upcoming work week, an upper level trough begins to dig down across the western Plains. This feature will ultimately collect TS Beryl and move some of its precipitation towards the Tennessee Valley. More on this in the long term discussion. Closer to home, a warm and moist airmass will once again be situated across northern AL and southern middle TN. With southerly flow, expect temperatures to peak in the low to mid 90s on Monday and Tuesday with medium to high chances (50-70%) for showers and storms each afternoon. Main hazards with these storms are gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Friday) Issued at 312 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 For now, it looks like the majority of the rainfall we will get from Beryl will fall into the Tuesday night through Wednesday timeframe. As Beryl moves inland through eastern TX, it is expected to be ingested within the upper trough extending southwestward through the Midwest and into western TX. This favors a northeast shift in track and would currently favor a heavier rain axis stretching from northern MS through northwest AL and into Nashville. Any tornado/strong wind threat appears to be confined well to our southwest as the system will weaken considerably by the time it reaches this far north. Flooding looks to be the primary potential impact from this system, and will hopefully have a better feel for the track once Beryl makes landfall early next week. Highs on Wednesday look to be quite cool, only topping out in the low to mid 80s as rain and cloud cover limit diurnal heating. The remainder of the long term forecast will feature seasonably cool but warming temperatures as high pressure builds west from the Atlantic and upper ridging keeps us in a warm-sectored airmass. Without any signal for stronger synoptic forcing, will keep PoPs on the lower side (20-40%) for primarily diurnally driven showers and storms each afternoon. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions continue through the TAF period at both KMSL and KHSV with light, variable winds. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GH SHORT TERM....GH LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...HC