Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
619 FXUS66 KHNX 130751 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1251 AM PDT Tue Aug 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Based on the incoming trough, confidence is growing for a stretch of near-normal temperatures for the remainder of this week into the weekend. 2. Despite moderating relative humidity values, the risk of grass fires continues with elevated afternoon winds. For today, expect increased winds across eastern Kern County. && .DISCUSSION... A trough of low pressure is moving into Northern California with a zonal flow aloft over our forecast area. High temperatures in the mid to upper-90`s are on tap for today and through the next several days as the trough pattern persists along the West Coast. Probabilities of highs at or above 97 degrees range from 40 to 80 percent in the San Joaquin Valley for today with slightly higher chances for a high of at least 95 degrees. Although, triple digit heat for the Central Valley still has a likelihood of about 20 to 40 percent today. Basically, we`re looking at near average, or seasonal, temperatures, though remain relatively warm. Highs in the desert portion of eastern Kern County will remain similarly warm. Yet, the best chance for a triple digit high in the desert is towards the Indian Wells Valley, as probabilities are about 10 to 25 percent. Latest short-term ensemble guidance suggests another possibility for gusts of 45 mph or higher along the Mojave Desert slopes in eastern Kern County by this afternoon. While the probability is up to 70 percent for a few hours during the late afternoon and evening, areal coverage is localized. Thus, will hold off on a Wind Advisory in this area for now. Chances for 95 degree readings or lower increase as we progress through this week into the weekend. By Saturday, highs in the Central Valley are at a 20 to 40 percent chance of a reading of 95 degrees or below. We will monitor for the possibility of increased winds in our prone areas by this weekend. Otherwise, temperatures will remain steady, with highs continuing in the mid to upper-90`s. Climatology shows a slight lowering trend by this time next week, or on the 20th, as daily average maximum temperatures are around 96 to 97 degrees. && .AVIATION...Areas of MVFR and local IFR visibilities will continue in and around wildfires. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the central CA interior over the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ BSO/SM weather.gov/hanford