625
FXUS64 KHGX 070529
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1229 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION, TROPICAL...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Numerous afternoon thunderstorms have developed off the remnants of
a weak frontal boundary, lingering south of the I-10 corridor.
Daytime heating, pooling moisture and compressional heating have
greatly destabilized the environment across the area, so expect gusty
thunderstorms to continue into the early evening as additional
convection fires off the slew of disorganized outflow boundaries.
Currently, much of this activity is ongoing south of the I-10
corridor. As we head into the evening, the bulk of the storms will
propagate to the southwest. Scattered to isolated storms will
propagate to the north/northwest as well, with all activity
eventually tapering off later tonight. These storms are capable of
producing gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall, thus WPC has
portions of SE Texas under a Marginal (1/4) Risk of Excessive
Rainfall through this evening. Ponding on roadways and brief
instances of flash flooding could occur, especially within urban
areas.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

The start of the long term will be largely focused on Beryl as it
will have made landfall and is progged to linger in/around SE TX.
Extended models have been fairly consistent with the idea of ele-
vated rain chances persisting for much of Mon/Mon night, then be-
coming a more diurnal type precipitation pattern through the rest
of the week as its remnants weaken further and exits to the N/NE.
Depending on how much rain we get from Beryl (and to some extent,
where the heaviest rains fall), there could be some concerns with
localized flooding or river flooding for parts or much of the CWA
through Fri.

So, regarding Beryl, locations near/around the circulation center
will see the strongest winds...with almost all of the area seeing
showers and possible thunderstorms. Periods of locally heavy rain
will be possible with WPC keeping areas generally west of I-45 in
a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) and areas east of I-45 in a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall on Day 3 (Mon). Totals
for the event (Sun-Tues) should average from 5 to 10 inches...but
locally higher amounts are going to be possible. There`s also go-
ing to be a threat for tornadoes with squalls/thunderstorms star-
ting late Sun night through the daytime hours on Mon. As such, we
are included in SPC`s Days 2 and 3 Convective Outlooks. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

First outer rainband and associated SHRA/TSRA from Beryl are currently
working their way toward the coast. Next several TAF packages will indicate
periods of SHRA/TSRA and increasing/gusty E to NE winds as Beryl continues
to organize/strengthen and make its way toward the middle Texas coast.
06Z TAFs will generally have SHRA near the coast (GLS and LBX) through
15Z then further inland (remaining TAF sites) for the rest of the morning
and afternoon hours. Could see a break in activity for the TAF sites
heading into this evening, but expect multiple rainbands to begin moving
toward the TAF sites later tonight through tomorrow morning with the
bulk of activity during the day tomorrow.

42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

A light to occasionally moderate flow is expected to prevail through
tonight. Winds will be more variable this evening given the develop-
ment of outflow boundaries and scattered storms. But, be on the look
out for strengthening winds/elevated seas/increasing swells and rain
chances as early as tonight across our offshore waters. These deter-
iorating conditions will then be spreading into the remainder of the
Upper TX coastal waters/coast on Sun...likely peaking Sun night into
Mon afternoon as Beryl makes landfall around the Middle TX coast.


As Beryl weakens, improving conditions (lowering winds and seas) can
be expected Tues night through Weds night...but periods of unsettled
weather will remain in the forecast through the rest of the week. 41

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Beryl will seize full control over the weather pattern later today
as it continues northwestward towards the Texas coastal bend. We are
already seeing the first outer band just off of the coast early this
morning. Conditions will deteriorate rapidly overnight into Monday
morning as Beryl makes landfall. Hurricane Force Winds will be
possible across the Matagorda Bay area, with Tropical Storm Force
Winds extending as far inland as the I-10 corridor. These strong
winds will bring 2-6 feet of storm surge along the coast. In
addition to storm surge, this system is expected to bring 5-10
inches across SE Texas with locally higher amounts possible.
Furthermore, conditions are favorable for the development of
isolated tornadoes within Beryl late Sunday into Monday.

Numerous watches and warnings are in place throughout the Texas
coastline and extending inland. Most areas along and south of I-10
are under a Tropical Storm Warning. A Hurricane Watch is in effect
for coastal areas from San Luis Pass to Sargent. A Hurricane Warning
is in effect for areas from Sargent to Port O`Connor, spanning as
far inland as Jackson and Matagorda Counties. A Storm Surge Warning
is in effect for all coastal locations from Port O`Conner to High
Island. A Flood Watch is in effect for areas along and west of I-45
late tonight into Tuesday morning. SPC has indicated that there is a
slight (level 2/5) risk of tornadoes developing in areas along and
south of I-10 with Beryl.

Batiste/03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  77  84  72  85 /  40  80  60  50
Houston (IAH)  79  86  76  89 /  70  90  60  60
Galveston (GLS)  82  89  79  88 /  90 100  80  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Warning for TXZ235-236-335-336-436.

     Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ210>214-226-227-237-238-313-337-
     338-437>439.

     Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for TXZ176-
     177-195>199-210>213-226-227-235>238-313-335>338-436>438.

     Storm Surge Warning for TXZ214-313-335>338-436>439.

     Hurricane Watch for TXZ337-437.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ330-350-370.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ335-355-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...42
MARINE...41
TROPICAL...Batiste/03