500
FXUS64 KHGX 080455
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Tropical Storm Beryl continues to be the main forecast feature for
SE TX the next few of days. The system is still expected to streng-
then back to hurricane force this evening, with landfall just east
of Matagorda Bay overnight. In the meantime, rainfall bands associ-
ated with Beryl will continue to move inland and across SE TX with
squall-like conditions possible. Hurricane Warnings will remain in
place for our SW coastal counties with Tropical Storm Warnings for
the rest of the CWA. Storm Surge Warnings are in place for much of
the Middle to Upper TX coast. While there could be sustained winds
up to tropical storm force winds (39-73mph) from the Houston metro
all the way up to Lake Livingston (highest near the coast and then
decreasing going N/NE) around landfall overnight into Mon morning,
the main threat for SE TX should the excessive/heavy rain as Beryl
weakens over the region for Mon afternoon/evening. Rainfall totals
will average from 5 to 10 inches with locally higher amounts up to
15 inches possible. Scattered showers the last couple of days have
help to increase soil moisture in places, so it may not take a lot
of rain to cause issues tomorrow. Additionally, some of the storms
will be capable of producing tornadoes.

Much more information regarding these tropical hazards (and more)
can be found on our Hurricane Local Statement. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 357 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

In the wake of Beryl, which will be well into AR by Tues afternoon,
the weak/diffuse flow at the mid to upper levels along with broad/
weak high pressure at the surface across the region will give us a
more diurnal precipitation pattern...fueled by some lingering deep
tropical moisture. The best rain chances are likely going to focus
on the sea/bay breezes during the late morning/afternoons. This is
going to help keep highs mostly in the lower 90s through the week,
with lows in the mid to upper 70s. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Initial outer rainbands from Beryl are starting to penetrate
coastal communities in Matagorda, Brazoria, and Galveston
counties tonight. Expect additional rainbands to push northward
through the overnight and early morning hours. These outer
rainbands will bring squally conditions at times as Beryl
continues its northward motion. Beryl is expected to weaken during
the day on Monday after it has made landfall, and continues to
progress to the north and northeast; however, north/south
orientated rain bands could possibly set up that may continue to
bring tropical storm conditions to several terminals even as the
center of Beryl has moved north of SE Texas.

Tropical storm force winds will be developing over the next few
hours, with coastal terminals seeing the first initial degradation
of conditions. These conditions will spread inland throughout the
overnight and early morning hours with sustained winds of
(34-73kts with higher gusts possible). Winds should begin to
decrease by the late afternoon starting at coastal terminals and
extending NE to the remainder of the terminals. CIGS look to lift
slower through the afternoon, but should improve through the
evening and early overnight periods.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Winds and seas along with the coverage of squalls will continue to
increase this evening and into tonight as Beryl approaches the Texas
Coast. The National  Hurricane Center continues to predict that
Beryl will become a category one hurricane before moving ashore late
tonight or early tomorrow. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for
Matagorda Bay along with the nearshore and offshore waters through
Monday. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Galveston
Bay. Seas of 15-20 feet (occasionally higher) are expected tonight
and tomorrow morning along with widespread strong gales. Hurricane
force gusts are likely in squalls. Sustained hurricane conditions
are expected near where the storm tracks. Winds and seas are
expected to gradually improve by tomorrow afternoon. However,
lingering heavy squalls will be possible.

Once Beryl is out of the way, expect a daily risk of showers and
thunderstorms to continue through Friday. Winds are expected to be
relatively light with seas generally 2-3 feet. However, locally
higher winds and seas cannot be ruled out in or near any
thunderstorm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Houston (IAH) MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM
Galveston (GLS) MMM MMM MMM MMM / MMM MMM MMM MMM

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...WFO TAE
MARINE...Self