184
FXUS64 KHGX 082050
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
350 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Lingering rainbands from Beryl continue to brush across portions of
SE Texas. Thankfully, these rainbands are generally weaker in
nature, with lighter rainfall and moderate (but still weaker) wind
gusts. Beryl should continue northeasterly overnight, paving the way
for more benign weather. Please continue to heed all tropical storm
warnings until Beryl exists SE Texas.

On Tuesday, the trough over the Plains/Mississippi River valley will
continue further east, carrying the leftovers of Beryl with it.
Meanwhile, a mid level ridge/high will develop over the Desert
southwest. Even behind Beryl, PWs are still sufficient for the
development of additional showers/storms as weak impulses pass
overhead. CAMs suggest that areas south of I-10 have the best shot
of getting rain Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, the majority of SE
Texas should remain dry. Despite the cooling brought by Beryl, 850mb
temperatures of 15-18C and clearer skies should still bring highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s. Dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to mid
70s, and thus heat indices will be in the mid 90s to as high as 106
degrees. While conditions will be relatively cool for summertime,
extensive power outages caused by Hurricane Beryl have left millions
without proper cooling. In the days after the Houston Derecho, we
saw a spike in heat-related illnesses following the extensive power
outages across the metro area. Given these extenuating
circumstances, all of SE Texas will be under a Heat Advisory on
Tuesday. If you do not have access to AC/cooling due to power
outages, please take precautions now. Drink plenty of water, wear
loose fitting cloths, and avoid strenuous activities. Know the
signs and symptoms of heat related illnesses.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The Lone Star State will find itself between two building
mid/upper subtropical ridges of high pressure during the long
term. This will equate to seasonably hot and humid conditions,
with highs mostly in the low/mid 90s and lows predominantly in the
mid/upper 70s (around 80 at the coast, low 70s northern Piney
Woods). There will be a daily risk of isolated to scattered
shower/thunderstorm activity that should mostly match the typical
diurnal patterns of the summer seas. The one potentially abnormal
thing about the long term is the prospect of continued power
outages. My expertise are not in power restoration prediction. But
additional heat advisories may be warranted access to A/C remains
lacking across our region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

The center of Beryl continues lifting north-northeast, currently
near CXO. More consistent RA with embedded TS continues across UTS
with more bands of SHRA and TSRA to the south. Things will
generally clear out from south to north through the afternoon.
MVFR conditions continue for the next 6 to 12 hours before clear.
Strong gusty winds of 35 to 50 kt will continue across IAH, CXO,
HOU, and UTS for the next couple hours, but winds will subside
through the late afternoon and evening. VFR conditions resume late
tonight with winds subsiding to 5-10 kt by tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 339 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Strong winds, rough seas, and above normal water levels will
continue to gradually decline this evening and into the overnight.
By Tuesday and beyond, we expect mostly light to occasionally
moderate winds and low seas. There will be a daily risk of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Locally higher
winds and waves will be possible within and near any thunderstorm.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Heavy rainfall has made its way inland with Hurricane Beryl
continuing to make its trek into Southeast Texas. We`ve already seen
3-5" of rain fall across portions of Matagorda/Brazoria counties
where a Flash Flood Warning was issued earlier this morning. In
total, we are still expecting widespread totals of 5-10" with
locally higher amounts up to 15". This is expected to result in
widespread action to minor river flooding with isolated moderate to
major river flooding. With high-resolution guidance still favoring
rainfall totals of 4-6+" traveling along the I-45 corridor, we are
also monitoring for potential bayou/creek flooding as well around
the greater Houston metro area. Rainfall rates within the convective
bands can reach 2-3" per hour and with these bands moving over the
same locations repeatedly, this can quickly result in urban
flooding. While these convective bands have been mainly centered
around Matagorda and Brazoria counties early this morning, as Beryl
travels further inland the flood threat will increase for portions
of Harris, Fort Bend, and Wharton counties later this morning.

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
never travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS NWPS
webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/).

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  91  72  93 /  20  20  10  20
Houston (IAH)  72  91  75  93 /  20  30  10  40
Galveston (GLS)  78  90  80  89 /  40  50  30  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ163-164-176>179-196-198>200-
     212>214-238-300-313-338-438-439.

     Heat Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ163-
     164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
     436>439.

     Storm Surge Warning for TXZ214-313-338-438-439.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ330-350-370.

     Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ335-355-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...WFO
MARINE...Self