481
FXHW60 PHFO 151306
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
306 AM HST Thu Aug 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate trade winds will continue today, then return to breezy
levels Friday through early next week. Showers will favor windward
and mauka locations, particularly during the overnight and early
morning periods as areas of moisture move through.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A broad surface trough (remnants of former TC Emilia), located
around 200 miles north of Hilo, will continue westward today
through tonight, weakening the local trades to moderate levels.
This broad surface trough, combined with a mid-level trough and
an increase in low-level moisture, will continue to support better
shower coverage, primarily for windward and mauka locations. A
few interior/leeward showers are possible this afternoon, where
localized sea breezes form.

Breezy trade wind conditions are expected to return Friday
through the weekend as the aforementioned trough begins to track
away from the state and the deep-layer ridge strengthens. A modest
increase in low-level moisture, accompanying another surface trough
passing to the south, could translate to increasing shower coverage
Sunday through Tuesday, most likely over the eastern end of the
state.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trades will deliver low clouds and brief
showers to windward areas through the forecast period. A trough
passing by to the north will weaken winds slightly, veer towards
a more easterly direction, and allow an increase in low- level
moisture over the western end of the state today. VFR conditions
will prevail with isolated MVFR CIG over windward areas.

AIRMET Sierra has been issued for mtn obsc due to low cigs and
SHRA. Otherwise, no other AIRMETs are in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to locally strong trade winds will prevail through early
next week. A weak surface trough passing by north of the islands
will keep the trade winds below Small Craft Advisory today and
tonight. The trades will strengthen back to SCA levels over the
typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island Friday,
then hold at these levels through early next week.

Several small long-period swells from the south and southeast
will produce small surf along south facing shores through the
work week. A more significant south swell will arrive late Sunday
and Sunday night, peak above the summertime average Monday, then
slowly lower through the middle of next week.

Seasonally flat to tiny surf is expected through early next week
for north facing shores. East shore surf will remain below normal
during the next couple days, then trend higher over the weekend
and rise to near seasonal levels early next week.

The combination of the full moon and water levels running around
0.5 ft higher than normal should produce minor coastal flooding
each afternoon along the shorelines across the state beginning
8/18 and likely continuing through 8/20. A Coastal Flood Statement
will eventually be needed as we get closer to the event.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&
$$

DISCUSSION...Gibbs
AVIATION...Shigesato
MARINE...Jelsema