673
FXHW60 PHFO 162000
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1000 AM HST Fri Aug 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to locally strong trade winds will persist through
Saturday with a slight decrease possible early next week. Showers
will typically favor windward and mauka locations with some
spillage to leeward, particularly during the overnight into early
morning hours. Chances of showers may increase Saturday night
into early next week as an area of enhanced moisture moves from
east to west across the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This morning`s satellite imagery shows scattered showers over some
windward areas with a few light sprinkles over leeward areas.
Trade winds have picked up from yesterday, especially over the
eastern half of the state where wind observations are already
showing breezy to locally strong trades. We should see the trade
winds strengthen throughout the day today for the western half of
the state. Beyond today, we should see breezy to locally strong
trades hold through Saturday then slightly decrease early next
week.

As far as precipitation, no significant rainfall is expected
through the weekend. But we should see a subtle increase of
moisture starting around Saturday night, which should bring a
little more shower activity mainly during the overnight and early
morning hours. Beyond Sunday, the forecast depends on if we will
see some type of tropical disturbance develop far southeast of the
state during the next few days. Please see the Tropical Weather
Outlook (TWOCP) for more information regarding the potential
tropical genesis. Latest guidance continues to show some type of
tropical disturbance passing just south of the state on Monday
with the potential for heavier showers depending on how close the
disturbance passes. So plenty of uncertainty for the weather
forecast on Monday and Tuesday. Beyond Tuesday and through the
middle of next week, we should see our typical breezy trade wind
weather return with some passing showers from time to time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trades will bring clouds and showers
primarily to windward and mountain areas for the next few days.
MVFR cigs and visibilities can be expected within the showers as
they pass by. More showers are expected during the night time and
early morning hours.

AIRMET Tango for low level turbulence leeward of the terrain is in
effect today statewide due to the breezy trade winds and could
last through tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Locally strong trade winds will persist into early next week, and
as such, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the
typical windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island. The
SCA level winds will persist at least through the weekend.

The current small south swell is expected to gradually decline
over the next few days. Small background energy from the southeast
expected through Saturday. A more significant south swell will
arrive late Sunday and Sunday night, peaking above the summertime
average Monday, and then slowly lower through the middle of next
week.

Seasonally flat to tiny surf is expected through early next week
for north facing shores. East shore surf will trend to seasonal
averages through the next week.

The combination of the upcoming full moon and water levels
running around 0.5 ft higher than predicted could produce minor
coastal flooding as early as this afternoon. The chance for minor
coastal flooding during the afternoon high tide will continue
through at least Monday. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued
for this event starting with this afternoon.

Increased moisture and instability moving from east to west over
the offshore waters Sunday night through Monday night south of the
islands could produce some thunderstorms.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Tsamous
MARINE...Foster