207
FXHW60 PHFO 071944
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
944 AM HST Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stable, moderate trade wind pattern will prevail through Monday
with mainly light showers focused over the windward and mountain
areas. Increasing trade winds and slightly wetter conditions are
expected during the middle of the week, with breezy trades
continuing into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A stable, moderate trade wind flow will continue to focus limited
rainfall over windward slopes into tomorrow. Broad surface high
pressure driving the trades is bisected in the far northern
Pacific by a large, but somewhat weak, area of low pressure. As
this low lifts northward on Monday, trades may increase only
slightly. Meanwhile, a strong mid- to upper-level ridge parked
over the islands will maintain very stable conditions with an
inversion based around 5000 to 7000 ft. Aside from a small batch
of moisture moving across Oahu this morning, expect limited
windward rainfall through Monday. The Kona slopes of the Big
Island will experience spotty afternoon and evening showers, while
remaining leeward areas will be rather dry.

Trade winds will strengthen as showers pick up Monday night and
Tuesday. Trades winds increase to locally breezy levels as the
broad ridge to the north builds and the surface low lifts
northward. A batch of shallow moisture, currently located about
300 miles east of Hilo, will bring increased showers Monday
night, followed by another area on Tuesday night. The mid-level
ridge will initially hold, limiting shower intensity. However, a
mid-level trough approaching from the southeast will lead to
borderline Wind Advisory conditions on the high summits of the Big
Island. The mid-level trough will weaken as it passes over the
islands on Thursday, causing winds on the summits to decline and
likely having little influence on rainfall.

Breezy trade winds and a typical pattern of mainly windward
showers will prevail Friday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds are expected to continue
through Monday. Periods of clouds showers will be possible, mostly
over windward and mauka areas, bringing occasional MVFR ceilings
and visibilities today. AIRMET Sierra is posted for mountain
obscurations above 2500 feet for the island of Oahu. Other
windward slopes could have AIRMET Sierra later today as stable low
clouds move in from the east. VFR will prevail over most leeward
areas today.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure far northeast of the state will keep moderate to
locally fresh trade winds into Monday. The ridge to the north
looks to strengthen over the next few days and will bring back
moderate to locally strong trade winds Tuesday. A Small Craft
Advisory will likely go back up for the typical windy waters
around Maui County and the Big Island.

Small surf will hold along south facing shores over the next few
days as the current small south-southeast swell slowly declines.
A small south-southwest swell could begin to fill in late Monday,
which should maintain small surf along south facing shores
through Wednesday. Into the long range, a low pressure system
currently deepening southeast of New Zealand will send a series
of south swells next weekend into the first half of the following
week.

Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny with a small
northeast swell wrapping into select north facing shores today.
This northeast swell should decline on Monday. Surf along east
facing shores will trend up Tuesday as trade winds strengthen
across the region.

The combination of higher than normal water levels and afternoon
spring tides are resulting in water levels running over half a
foot above guidance around the Big Island and Maui. This will
cause minor coastal flooding issues for both Big Island and Maui
this afternoon during peak high tide.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wroe
AVIATION...Foster
MARINE...Kino