814
FXUS61 KGYX 060756
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
356 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms move through ahead of a
weak cold front today into this evening. The front passes late
tonight with high pressure building for Sunday into the early
week period. The next chance for showers and storms will be the
middle of next week, as another cold front potentially moves
into the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A very weak system that is line up with flow aloft continues to
slowly make its way from NE to SE through the CWA, with some
fits and starts along the way. Theres not much in the way of
geostrophic dynamics with this system, however, there is front
itself as a sfc boundary, plus any sfc boundaries left behind by
previous convection, Also, the very humid low level air will
help instability as well. And, being S of an anticyclonic jet in
the 300-200 MB range helps as well. This will lead to continue
SHRA/TSRA today, increasing in coverage as the front gets closer
this afternoon. Morning fog and low clouds will linger through
much of the morning on the coast, but should see some
brightening skies if not actual clearing inland by midday or so.
There could be some breaks of sun this afternoon in the CT
valley and S NH. Theres some suggestion of training potential
with the convection, but CAMs, especially the HRRR are tending
to move the cells along. Its something to watch for today, but
theres not enough there to warrant a watch at this point.
Despite all the clouds and the early day fog, should see temps
push into the mid 70s to mid 80s, but cooler on the mid coast
and at the beaches further S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Showers and storms continue into this evening, but should begin
to clear after midnight. There is not a lot of push behind the
front overnight, so the question remains of how much of the
drier air can mix down overnight, so expecting another round of
fog with lows in the low 60s N, to 65-70 in the S.

Should see clearing on Sunday with partly to mostly sunny skies,
and highs in the low 80s N and the mid to upper 80s in the S. It
will a little less humid, but Tds still in the low to mid 60s
most places, so not really dry by any means. Winds shift to W on
Sunday, but will like not be strong completely hold off sea
breezes, but they may come in later, and so the beaches will
likely be warm as well at least into mid afternoon. Sunday night
will be cooler in the mtns with lows around 60, but still mid to
upper 60s in the S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
----------------------------------------------------------------
Summary:
*Temperatures expected to run above average through early next week.

*Pleasant weather likely on Monday, through scattered storms return
by Wednesday.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
 Discussion:  High pressure builds just to the southeast over
 the Atlantic, ushering in hot and moist air through Tuesday.
 The period of hotter weather concludes by Wednesday, when a low
 moves across the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms.
 The end of the week looks generally on the more pleasant side
 but a stray shower / thunderstorm remains a possibility.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term...Flight restrictions persist through the day in all
but KLEB/KHIE, which will see mostly VFR. Coastal areas, if
they see any improvement it will be low end MVFR cigs. While
KMHT/KCON could see some brief periods of VFR this afternoon,
but will mostly be MVFR. Expect a return to IFR or lower in fog
and low cigs again tonight, but expect a return to VFR at all
terminals during Sunday morning.

Long Term...
Generally a quiet period for aviators, but lower flight
restrictions are likely with showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
night and Wednesday. Some patchy morning fog is also possible in
the Midcoast and CT river valley on Monday and Tuesday. The fog
could impact sites RKD, LEB, CON, and MHT.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds/seas stay below SCA through Monday night, but
areas of fog will persist through tonight, clearing on Sunday.


Long Term... Light southwesterly flow with 3-5 foot seas is
expected to start the day on Sunday, with winds and seas
gradually decreasing throughout the day as a low exits the
region. Quiet seas and light winds are expected through Tuesday
morning. Another incoming low will then increase seas and winds
during the day Tuesday, with southerly SCA level winds possible
by the end of the day and likely continuing through Wednesday
night.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Cempa
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Palmer