219
FXUS61 KGYX 070736
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
336 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the region today and remains over the
area into Monday night bringing mostly dry but hot weather. The
next chance for showers and storms will be Tuesday night and
Wednesday as another front moves into the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The sfc boundary associated with the weak cold front looks like
it has (finally) moved through the CWA, but given the time of
night night and the weak push behind the front, the slight drier
air has not mixed down yet, and this will have to wait until
after sunrise. So have to wait for that minor drop in Tds into
the mid to lower 60s. With the clearing behind the front this
allowing fog to form, and it will be with us through the early
morning, but should clear out quickly by 7-8 AM in most places.
Otherwise I think it should generally be a partly to mostly
sunny day with some sct CU developing, and maybe some lingering
cirrus, It will still be very warm with highs 85-90 across most
of the area, but 80-85 in the mtns. WSW flow will keep the sea
breeze at bay for much of the day, and only the beaches and
immediate shore will offer temps in the 70s. The weak upper
level wave moves just N of the CWA today, so a few SHRA/TSRA are
possible near the intl border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Mainly clear skies tonight and light winds should allow for
decoupling, and Tds will be somewhat lower, so mins look to
range from the low 60s in the N, maybe a few spots in the upper
50s, to mostly the mid 60s in the S. But most of this will come
at the expense of patchy fog given the moist low levels.

Again fog should burn off fairly quickly on Monday morning, but
the flow will be lighter, and have a more southerly component to
it, so the sea breeze will come in a little sooner and make it a
little bit further inland. Still there is hot air in place, so
highs should reach into he upper 80-s to low 90s in the interior
S half of NH and the ME coastal plain, with highs still in the
low to mid 80s along the coast and generally in the low to mid
80s in the mtns. The mid-coast will be coolest with highs 75-80.
Otherwise it`ll be mainly sunny and dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A rather warm and muggy pattern to continue in the week ahead with
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and again
late week. although most of the time it should remain dry.

The overall pattern in the long term can best be described as a
typical mid summer pattern with high dewpoints and a weak upper
level flow. On Tuesday a weak cool front will approach from the
Great Lakes area. Moisture will surge ahead of this front along
with increasing instability. Would expect showers and
thunderstorms to develop during the late Afternoon and continue
during Tuesday Night into Wednesday. The front will try to cross
the area Wednesday morning after which showers would diminish.
Given the high dewpoints can`t rule out scattered showers or
thunderstorms. New GFS is wetter than previous runs and stalls
the front over the area. Will need to see if that trend
continues...if so then Thursday could be wetter. Later Friday
into Saturday tropical moisture originating from the south may
ride north toward New England. Have raised pops some over the
NBM as this could produce more organized showers by weeks end.
Given how high the dew point temperatures will be all week,
added patchy fog most nights.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Fog is expected at most terminals between now and
sunrise. Only KMHT/KCON may escape it or see a very short period
of it. Otherwise it should burn off between 7-8 AM, with VFR
expected through today into this evening. However, will likely
see another round of fog tonight, best chance at KLEB/KHIE, but
also possible at coastal terminals and KAUG. Should see VFR at
all terminals again on Monday.

Long Term...VFR conditions Tuesday as week high pressure is overhead.
A cool front will result in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night
bringing areas of IFR. Conditions improve Wednesday into
Thurday as high pressure returns resulting in VFR conditions.


&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...The patchy fog will linger on the water today,
becoming thicker and more widespread tonight, and dissipating
some on Monday. Winds/seas will be below SCA levels thru Monday
as well.

Long Term...Wind and waves may approach SCA levels Tuesday
otherwise an extended period of relatively light winds and low waves
are expected through Friday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Cempa
SHORT TERM...Cempa
LONG TERM...Lulofs