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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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272 FXUS61 KGYX 071044 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 644 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds over the region today and remains over the area into Monday night bringing mostly dry but hot weather. The next chance for showers and storms will be Tuesday night and Wednesday as another front moves into the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 640 AM...This update mainly brings thing in line with current obs. Some adjustments to sky through the morning, as the cirrus and cirrocu, slowly shift to our SE, but otherwise the warm and generally sunny day are still expected. Previously...The sfc boundary associated with the weak cold front looks like it has (finally) moved through the CWA, but given the time of night night and the weak push behind the front, the slight drier air has not mixed down yet, and this will have to wait until after sunrise. So have to wait for that minor drop in Tds into the mid to lower 60s. With the clearing behind the front this allowing fog to form, and it will be with us through the early morning, but should clear out quickly by 7-8 AM in most places. Otherwise I think it should generally be a partly to mostly sunny day with some sct CU developing, and maybe some lingering cirrus, It will still be very warm with highs 85-90 across most of the area, but 80-85 in the mtns. WSW flow will keep the sea breeze at bay for much of the day, and only the beaches and immediate shore will offer temps in the 70s. The weak upper level wave moves just N of the CWA today, so a few SHRA/TSRA are possible near the intl border. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... Mainly clear skies tonight and light winds should allow for decoupling, and Tds will be somewhat lower, so mins look to range from the low 60s in the N, maybe a few spots in the upper 50s, to mostly the mid 60s in the S. But most of this will come at the expense of patchy fog given the moist low levels. Again fog should burn off fairly quickly on Monday morning, but the flow will be lighter, and have a more southerly component to it, so the sea breeze will come in a little sooner and make it a little bit further inland. Still there is hot air in place, so highs should reach into he upper 80-s to low 90s in the interior S half of NH and the ME coastal plain, with highs still in the low to mid 80s along the coast and generally in the low to mid 80s in the mtns. The mid-coast will be coolest with highs 75-80. Otherwise it`ll be mainly sunny and dry. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A rather warm and muggy pattern to continue in the week ahead with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and again late week. although most of the time it should remain dry. The overall pattern in the long term can best be described as a typical mid summer pattern with high dewpoints and a weak upper level flow. On Tuesday a weak cool front will approach from the Great Lakes area. Moisture will surge ahead of this front along with increasing instability. Would expect showers and thunderstorms to develop during the late Afternoon and continue during Tuesday Night into Wednesday. The front will try to cross the area Wednesday morning after which showers would diminish. Given the high dewpoints can`t rule out scattered showers or thunderstorms. New GFS is wetter than previous runs and stalls the front over the area. Will need to see if that trend continues...if so then Thursday could be wetter. Later Friday into Saturday tropical moisture originating from the south may ride north toward New England. Have raised pops some over the NBM as this could produce more organized showers by weeks end. Given how high the dew point temperatures will be all week, added patchy fog most nights. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term...Fog is expected at most terminals between now and sunrise. Only KMHT/KCON may escape it or see a very short period of it. Otherwise it should burn off between 7-8 AM, with VFR expected through today into this evening. However, will likely see another round of fog tonight, best chance at KLEB/KHIE, but also possible at coastal terminals and KAUG. Should see VFR at all terminals again on Monday. Long Term...VFR conditions Tuesday as week high pressure is overhead. A cool front will result in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night bringing areas of IFR. Conditions improve Wednesday into Thurday as high pressure returns resulting in VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Short Term...The patchy fog will linger on the water today, becoming thicker and more widespread tonight, and dissipating some on Monday. Winds/seas will be below SCA levels thru Monday as well. Long Term...Wind and waves may approach SCA levels Tuesday otherwise an extended period of relatively light winds and low waves are expected through Friday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Cempa SHORT TERM...Cempa LONG TERM...Lulofs AVIATION... MARINE...