894
FXUS61 KGYX 210721
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
321 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front continues to press south through the area today bringing
the chance for scattered showers and a stray thunderstorm. The front
settles south of the area Monday with high pressure bringing dry
conditions. Moisture increases Tuesday with daily chances for showers
and afternoon thunderstorms into Friday. Cooler conditions are expected
for at least Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure looks to return
for next weekend with warming temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface observations suggest a west to east oriented cold front
has pushed into the mountains with winds turning northwesterly
near the Canadian Border. Latest radar shows little in the way
of precipitation with the front over the forecast area with
better radar returns over northern VT where rain is reaching the
ground. This front will continue southward through today
providing a focus for mainly clouds as the 00Z model suite
suggest little in the way of shower activity will occur over the
area until mid day.

The front will be pressing through the lakes region of NH and ME
around mid day with CAMs suggesting shower activity will start
to blossom near the front early this afternoon. The best chances
(20 to 40 percent) for showers will occur along and south of a
line from KLEB to KLEW between 1 PM and 4 PM. There will also be
a few hundred J/kg SB CAPE present bringing the chance for a
stray thunderstorm. Otherwise it will be mostly dry today with a
mix of sun and clouds as the front crosses the area. Highs will
range from the 70s north to mid 80s across the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The cold front will be pushing offshore this evening with mostly
clear skies for tonight. A drier airmass will moved into the
area behind the front with dewpoints dropping into the 40s and
50s. Northwest winds behind the front will slacken tonight and
with mostly clear skies lows will drop into the 40s north to 50s
south.

Fair weather looks to be in storm for Monday as the front stalls
south of the forecast area with weak high pressure moving in
from the west. Highs will range from the 70s north to 80s south,
while onshore winds will keep coastal areas cooler than the
interior.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overview...

A ridge builds into the Northeast as a near stationary front
begins to drift northward through midweek. Increasing moisture
from the building ridge brings increasing chances for showers
and thunderstorms by Tuesday and Wednesday as the moisture
interacts with the front, with shower chances continuing into
Thursday and Friday. A stronger cold front pushes through late
in the week, with high pressure building into the weekend and
bringing drier conditions.

Details...

By Tuesday, the front begins to drift northward as a warm
front, likely extending through the forecast area by the
afternoon hours. Scattered showers and storms become more
frequent by the afternoon hours near the front, but the exact
location of the front at this time remains uncertain.

Overall, the progression of the weather features have been
trending slower on the ensembles as we get closer in time. This
continues a trend we have seen over the last few weeks, and is
not uncommon in the summertime as forcing and features are not
as well defined compared to the cooler season. So currently
central and interior areas look to see the most widespread
showers and storms on Tuesday, but this will likely still need
to be fine tuned over the next couple of days depending on the
progress of the front.

Scattered showers and cooler conditions are expected for
Wednesday as the front lingers and mostly cloudy skies are
expected. By Thursday, a weak wave of low pressure likely moves
along the front and helps to enhance the shower and storm
activity. This looks like the best chance for the threat of some
heavier rainfall, especially in any areas that get worked over
in the previous couple of days.

Friday is where the slowing of the weather pattern since
yesterday shows up most, with chances for showers continuing.
Should the speed of the low`s progression be slower, Friday
could end up even wetter. With it still being almost a week
away, it`s too early to sort out any details with this feature,
but the trend for now is that it would be slower to depart. Then
by next weekend, high pressure begins to build in from the west
behind a more well defined cold front that helps clear out the
moisture. Temperatures also begin to rise again by next weekend
with this increasing sunshine.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR will prevail today through Monday. A
front dropping south through the area will provide a focus for
clouds and scattered showers early this afternoon along a line
from KLEB to KCON to KPWM so there will be a low chance for
brief restrictions if a shower crosses a TAF site. Valley fog
may develop tonight impacting KLEB and KHIE for a few hours
early Monday morning.


Long Term...There will be intermittent chances for restrictions
with afternoon showers and storms Tuesday through Friday.
Periods of marine fog and IFR conditions are also possible
through coastal terminals during this time period. Conditions
likely improve next Saturday as high pressure brings more steady
VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA
levels through Sunday night.

Long Term...A front stalls across the Gulf of Maine and lingers
for much of the week. Pressure patterns remain weak most of the
week, keeping conditions below SCA levels. Areas of dense fog
are possible at times Tuesday through Friday as the front
lingers. High pressure then clears the fog by next weekend.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Clair