Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
Issued by NWS Portland, ME
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065 FXUS61 KGYX 061406 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1006 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered showers and thunderstorms move through ahead of a weak cold front today into this evening. The front passes late tonight with high pressure building for Sunday into the early week period. The next chance for showers and storms will be the middle of next week, as another cold front potentially moves into the area. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10:05am Update... Another quick update to fine tune POPs and thunder for today. The morning convection continues to progress through the area, while some clearing is moving in behind it from the west. Breaks of sun are expected late morning through mid-afternoon, and then some more scattered shower and storm activity is expected for the afternoon. With the timing of this morning`s activity, coverage looks to remain more limited for the afternoon hours. 8:05am Update... A quick update to the POPs and thunder for the clusters of showers and storms coming through this morning. A few storms could bring some brief gusts, but most of these are expected to remain elevated above the inversion. Heavy downpours will also accompany these storms, but are expected to gradually weaken a bit as they get closer to the coast. 640 AM...This update mainly brings POPS into better line with what is happening this morning. One small convective cluster moving thru N VT should cross into N NH by 12Z. Another larger cluster of convection over the Hudson valley should move into S NH later this morning. Previously...A very weak system that is line up with flow aloft continues to slowly make its way from NE to SE through the CWA, with some fits and starts along the way. Theres not much in the way of geostrophic dynamics with this system, however, there is front itself as a sfc boundary, plus any sfc boundaries left behind by previous convection, Also, the very humid low level air will help instability as well. And, being S of an anticyclonic jet in the 300-200 MB range helps as well. This will lead to continue SHRA/TSRA today, increasing in coverage as the front gets closer this afternoon. Morning fog and low clouds will linger through much of the morning on the coast, but should see some brightening skies if not actual clearing inland by midday or so. There could be some breaks of sun this afternoon in the CT valley and S NH. Theres some suggestion of training potential with the convection, but CAMs, especially the HRRR are tending to move the cells along. Its something to watch for today, but theres not enough there to warrant a watch at this point. Despite all the clouds and the early day fog, should see temps push into the mid 70s to mid 80s, but cooler on the mid coast and at the beaches further S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Showers and storms continue into this evening, but should begin to clear after midnight. There is not a lot of push behind the front overnight, so the question remains of how much of the drier air can mix down overnight, so expecting another round of fog with lows in the low 60s N, to 65-70 in the S. Should see clearing on Sunday with partly to mostly sunny skies, and highs in the low 80s N and the mid to upper 80s in the S. It will a little less humid, but Tds still in the low to mid 60s most places, so not really dry by any means. Winds shift to W on Sunday, but will like not be strong completely hold off sea breezes, but they may come in later, and so the beaches will likely be warm as well at least into mid afternoon. Sunday night will be cooler in the mtns with lows around 60, but still mid to upper 60s in the S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ---------------------------------------------------------------- Summary: *Temperatures expected to run above average through early next week. *Pleasant weather likely on Monday, through scattered storms return by Wednesday. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Discussion: High pressure builds just to the southeast over the Atlantic, ushering in hot and moist air through Tuesday. The period of hotter weather concludes by Wednesday, when a low moves across the region, bringing showers and thunderstorms. The end of the week looks generally on the more pleasant side but a stray shower / thunderstorm remains a possibility. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...Flight restrictions persist through the day in all but KLEB/KHIE, which will see mostly VFR. Coastal areas, if they see any improvement it will be low end MVFR cigs. While KMHT/KCON could see some brief periods of VFR this afternoon, but will mostly be MVFR. Expect a return to IFR or lower in fog and low cigs again tonight, but expect a return to VFR at all terminals during Sunday morning. Long Term... Generally a quiet period for aviators, but lower flight restrictions are likely with showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some patchy morning fog is also possible in the Midcoast and CT river valley on Monday and Tuesday. The fog could impact sites RKD, LEB, CON, and MHT. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds/seas stay below SCA through Monday night, but areas of fog will persist through tonight, clearing on Sunday. Long Term... Light southwesterly flow with 3-5 foot seas is expected to start the day on Sunday, with winds and seas gradually decreasing throughout the day as a low exits the region. Quiet seas and light winds are expected through Tuesday morning. Another incoming low will then increase seas and winds during the day Tuesday, with southerly SCA level winds possible by the end of the day and likely continuing through Wednesday night. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Clair SHORT TERM...Cempa LONG TERM...Palmer