490
FXPQ50 PGUM 280805
AFDGUM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
605 PM ChST Fri Jun 28 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Satellite imagery is showing increasing skies and showers approaching
the Marianas from the east. Latest altimetry passes and Ritidian buoy
data are showing seas of 4 to 6 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
A trade disturbance is approaching the Marianas and will bring
scattered showers tonight and tomorrow. Have isolated thunderstorms
beginning late tonight into Saturday as models are showing deeper
moisture and some upper-level support as the TUTT cell north of the
Marianas drifts southwest. A disturbance lifting northwest out of
Micronesia looks to pass near to south of the Marianas Sunday into
Monday, with scattered showers expected again for Guam. Otherwise,
generally isolated trade showers expected for the CNMI beginning
Saturday night and for Guam beginning Monday night.

&&

.Marine/Surf...
Gentle to moderate trade winds will continue through the weekend
into next week. Combined seas of 4 to 6 feet will drop to between 3
and 5 feet late weekend into early next week as the trade swell
diminishes, then back up to 4 to 6 feet around the middle of next
week. A passing disturbance will bring scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow. Another disturbance passing to
the south may bring scattered showers for the Guam waters Sunday
through Monday.

There will be a moderate risk of rip currents along east facing
reefs, with a low risk along all other reefs. Surf may lower
slightly beginning Sunday into early next week as the trade swell
diminishes.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
A cascading trade-wind wave is expected to induce strong outflow
boundaries that may bring gusty conditions to Pohnpei Sunday and to
Kosrae Sunday night, followed by shower and thunder coverage
decreasing to the usual seasonal regime. Meanwhile, patchy showers
and possibly a thunderstorm or two is in store for Chuuk and Majuro
for much of the forecast period.

Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet as northeasterly and southeasterly
swells make their way across Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae. Meanwhile,
Majuro will observe seas of 4 to 6 feet drop down a foot or two by
the middle of next week.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Palau and Yap...
A tropical disturbance near Helen`s Reef in the southwesternmost
extent of the Republic of Palau, is inducing a substantial
convergence zone that spans well to the east-northeast across the
main islands of Palau and Yap. This is expected to produce
widespread heavy showers, patchy areas of thunderstorms, and gusty
outflow boundaries at and near Palau tonight; some of these gusts
may reach near gale-force in the coastal waters. Significant shower
coverage is also expected at Yap, but wind potentials are a little
more lackluster due to the convergence zone axis. Showers and winds
are expected to taper down slowly over the next few days, with
periods of patchy showers expected for much of next week.

Combined seas of 3 to 5 feet may drop a foot or two by early next
week, as various swells and wind waves decrease.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.

&&

$$

Marianas: Slagle
Micronesia: Montvila