Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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445 FXUS62 KGSP 080610 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 210 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An active pattern of afternoon and evening showers and storms is expected to continue for the first half of this week. More typical mid-July weather is expected toward the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 155 AM Monday: Stratiform rain lingers across our southeastern zones, but it`s very light. Plenty of cloud cover will continue overnight, with only patchy fog expected. Temps should largely hold steady for the rest of the night. Otherwise, a widespread deck of low stratus clouds is expected to build in given a rather moist boundary layer. Heading into the day, extensive morning clouds will likely delay daytime heating and the atmosphere will also remain worked over from yesterday`s storms. Thus, the CAMs are not overly enthused with the coverage of storms, especially outside of the mountains. Several storms appear likely over the southern mountains/escarpment with only isolated to scattered showers and storms elsewhere. Highs today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s, but could end up a degree or so cooler if morning clouds take longer to lift and scatter. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 115 AM Monday...Upper ridging remains strong across the southeast region thru the period as the remnants of TC Beryl track up the MS Valley. As the Bermuda High becomes displaced further east, expect an increase in GOM moisture Tue while a trof arnd the former TC builds in from the west. Afternoon instability looks initially delayed on the profiles, yet by mid to late afternoon the sfc trof convg shud help erode elCIN and instigate more widespread tstm development outside the mtns, with activity possibly lingering into the overnight hours. Still not much shear and weak mlvl LRs, so most storms will likely remain below severe criteria. A highly moist column will keep a chance of heavy precip possibly leading to isol hydro concerns, however. On Wed, drier continental air will build in from the west arnd the srn base of the sfc low, which shud shunt the higher chance of diurnal convec east ahead of an associated sfc trof. So, have continued to trend the highest PoPs east across the Piedmont thru the afternoon. Still expect warm humid days with highs in the lower to mid 90s across the non/mtns and u80s mtn valleys. Dewpoints on Tue will reach arnd 5 degrees warmer than Wed and HI values may rise into Advisory criteria across the Lakelands and the Catawba river/lake basin including the Charlotte metro area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 AM Monday...Dry low to mid level air looks to continue to advect in from the west Thu as a small scale sfc high nudges in across the mtns. Believe this airmass will be enuf to limit the convec potential during the afternoon to lower PoPs quite a bit from the NBM likelies. Fri precip is becoming more uncertain as some models now develop a sfc wave along the coastal bndry and bring in a good amt of llvl Atl moisture to interact with a instu wedge bndry. This wave is a new feature and will not change the going PoPs Fri too much from the previous forecast. Still seeing a drying trend in the latest guidance for the weekend and the NBM PoPs again seem too widespread and confidently high. Still believe diurnal general tstms are probable, yet possibly more limited to the higher terrain and pulse mode in nature. Temps remain arnd normal and dewps lower from the u60s, so no good signal is had for heat index issues thru the period. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: All TAF sites will likely be in and out of LIFR to MVFR cigs (and possibly some fog) thru daybreak. But with so much debris cloudiness from earlier convection, confidence is on the low side that widespread stratus will really sock things in. Low cigs will slowly lift/scatter out late morning, with all sites expected to be VFR by around 18z. Not expecting as much convection today, with typical mountain-top activity starting in the early aftn, but only isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA in the Piedmont mid-aftn thru early evening. As such, will go with a TEMPO at KAVL, but PROB30 elsewhere. KCLT looks to have the lowest chances today, and even the PROB30 looks overdone per latest high-res guidance. Tonight, another night of lingering mid and high clouds coupled with low-level moisture will support patchy status and fog overnight. Outlook: An active summertime pattern continues for most of the week, leading to showers/thunderstorms and possible restrictions each afternoon/evening. Fog or low stratus may develop each morning, especially over areas that received rain the previous day. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDL/SBK NEAR TERM...ARK/TW SHORT TERM...SBK LONG TERM...JDL/SBK AVIATION...ARK