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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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770 FXUS62 KGSP 081135 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 735 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An active pattern of afternoon and evening showers and storms is expected to continue for the first half of this week. More typical mid-July weather is expected toward the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 700 AM Monday: Little change in the upper pattern today, with a trough axis over the central CONUS, while the western edge of a subtropical high noses further into the Southeast. Yesterday`s convection has effectively pushed a quasi-stationary boundary southeast into the Midlands. Still expecting fairly widespread stratus/stratocu...along with areas of fog (locally dense) across the forecast area this morning that should take a while to scatter out and lift into a convective cu field by early aftn. Less cloud cover in the mountains should allow typical diurnal convection to fire, with 2000 J/kg or more of sbCAPE. Once again, cannot rule out a severe tstm and locally heavy rainfall. The clouds in the Piedmont will help delay destabilization, and less convective coverage is expected than last couple days. The CAMs generally show this, with scattered to numerous showers and storms in the mountains, and isolated to widely scattered east. Highs will be near normal, except slightly above normal in the Upper Savannah Valley. Tonight will feature mostly cloudy skies with patchy fog and slightly above normal temps. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 115 AM Monday...Upper ridging remains strong across the southeast region thru the period as the remnants of TC Beryl track up the MS Valley. As the Bermuda High becomes displaced further east, expect an increase in GOM moisture Tue while a trof arnd the former TC builds in from the west. Afternoon instability looks initially delayed on the profiles, yet by mid to late afternoon the sfc trof convg shud help erode elCIN and instigate more widespread tstm development outside the mtns, with activity possibly lingering into the overnight hours. Still not much shear and weak mlvl LRs, so most storms will likely remain below severe criteria. A highly moist column will keep a chance of heavy precip possibly leading to isol hydro concerns, however. On Wed, drier continental air will build in from the west arnd the srn base of the sfc low, which shud shunt the higher chance of diurnal convec east ahead of an associated sfc trof. So, have continued to trend the highest PoPs east across the Piedmont thru the afternoon. Still expect warm humid days with highs in the lower to mid 90s across the non/mtns and u80s mtn valleys. Dewpoints on Tue will reach arnd 5 degrees warmer than Wed and HI values may rise into Advisory criteria across the Lakelands and the Catawba river/lake basin including the Charlotte metro area. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 145 AM Monday...Dry low to mid level air looks to continue to advect in from the west Thu as a small scale sfc high nudges in across the mtns. Believe this airmass will be enuf to limit the convec potential during the afternoon to lower PoPs quite a bit from the NBM likelies. Fri precip is becoming more uncertain as some models now develop a sfc wave along the coastal bndry and bring in a good amt of llvl Atl moisture to interact with a instu wedge bndry. This wave is a new feature and will not change the going PoPs Fri too much from the previous forecast. Still seeing a drying trend in the latest guidance for the weekend and the NBM PoPs again seem too widespread and confidently high. Still believe diurnal general tstms are probable, yet possibly more limited to the higher terrain and pulse mode in nature. Temps remain arnd normal and dewps lower from the u60s, so no good signal is had for heat index issues thru the period. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Once again, less extensive low stratus than the guidance has been advertising. However, IFR...even locally LIFR conditions have been slowly expanding since around sunrise. The low cigs should lift/scatter out late morning, with all sites expected to be VFR by around 18z. Not expecting as much convection today, with typical mountain-top activity starting in the early aftn, but only isolated to widely scattered SHRA/TSRA in the Piedmont mid-aftn thru early evening. As such, will go with a TEMPO at KAVL, but PROB30 elsewhere. KCLT looks to have the lowest chances today, and may be able to remove the TS mention on later updates, if trends in the guidance hold. Tonight, another night of lingering mid and high clouds coupled with low-level moisture will support patchy status and fog overnight. Outlook: An active summertime pattern continues for most of the week, leading to showers/thunderstorms and possible restrictions each afternoon/evening. Fog or low stratus may develop each morning, especially over areas that received rain the previous day. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SBK NEAR TERM...ARK/JDL SHORT TERM...SBK LONG TERM...SBK AVIATION...ARK/JDL