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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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819 FXUS62 KGSP 011808 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 208 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Drier and cooler high pressure continues over our region through Tuesday. As this high moves off the East Coast in mid week, temperatures will warm Wednesday and Thursday. Expect increasingly hot and humid conditions going into the weekend with some scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms, especially over the mountains. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 200 PM Monday...A 1028 mb sfc high will drift east from the Great Lakes to the New England Coast tonight thru Tuesday. Dry NELY flow around this high will continue to lower dewpts across the forecast area, while the 850 mb flow will veer to ELY, then SELY thru the period. Enough moisture within that flow may support keeping some stratocu around, especially over the southern half of the forecast area and near the Blue Ridge Escarpment. The clouds will be capped, however, so not expecting any precip. The exception will be across the Lakelands and the southern Escarpment, where a stray shower or two may develop before sunset. The dry air advection should preclude fog development overnight. Lows will be slightly below normal, mainly in the 60s. Tuesday looks like a quiet and rather pleasant day for early July, as dewpts dip into the 50s for most of the area under a fair wx cu field. Highs are expected to be around 5 deg below normal. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 155 PM Monday: Synoptically, high pressure continues to amplify over the south and sets the stage for many days of warming. Height rises max out by Thursday and remain stout through the period. Guidance from the GFS develops an extremely weak shortwave to the north of the CWA on Thursday and attempts to bring a very small amount of DPVA near the mountains. However, this is not depicted in any other model and given the strong area of high pressure, confidence for any shower development is very low. Moisture, in at least the mid levels, looks to start returning Wednesday night into Thursday as the anticyclonic flow advects moisture from the Gulf. As for any fire concerns, these should start to decrease through the period. Wednesday looks to have a well mixed BL, but with less mid level dry air than Tuesday. RH values should remain in the upper 40 to 50 percent range. Winds will also be light. The main concern is drier vegetation, especially in the NC Piedmont and NE GA zones. Highs on Wednesday will struggle to reach the low 90s in the southern portion of the CWA. But, Thursday high temps start ramping up as the high amplifies. The heat index could also reach the low 100s as the influx of moisture returns to the area. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 200 PM Monday: Summertime remains alive and well into the extended. Thursday night the strong area of high pressure continues to grow over the southeast, while beginning to be pinched off a bit. Guidance from the GFS/EURO/Canadian all show a developing trough across the upper CONUS that gently pushes the high eastward slightly and turns flow aloft more SW by Saturday. This turning should amplify moisture advection into the south, raising the risk for high heat indices Friday and Saturday. Confidence in triple digit heat index values is increasing, given the persistent height rises and moisture return. Guidance has PWAT values topping the 2 inch mark, setting up a very muggy day for Friday and Saturday. The areas of concern are for areas south of I-85 and the eastern NC Piedmont. Will continue to monitor. By Sunday, the trough to the north could help heights fall a bit and cool the CWA down by a few degrees. This is still too far out to pinpoint or have any confidence in given variations from model guidance. Once moisture returns, there could be an increase in more diurnal convection and shower chances, especially over the mountains. But, at this point, QPF response is minimal and again concentrated over the NC mtns. Low confidence in precipitation making a dent in rainfall needs for the CWA over the next 7 days. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are expected thru the period at all TAF sites, as dry NELY flow continues across the region. A few isolated showers may form west of KAND, but otherwise no deep convection is anticipated. Low-level low will veer to more ELY overnight, and may help produce varying amounts of VFR-level stratocu. But cloud bases are not expected to be under 3500 ft. Wind will be generally 5-10 kt, with occasional gusts until late aftn (possibly lingering a little longer at KAVL). A period of low-end gusts may return to the Upstate sites after daybreak, with highest chances at KAND. Wind will veer to close to due ELY at KCLT, favoring SELY by late aftn on Tuesday. Outlook: A cold front will stall just south of the area, resulting in quiet weather thru mid-week. A return of more typical mid-summer diurnal convection is expected by Thursday into the weekend. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...ARK SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...ARK