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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI
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714 FXUS63 KGRR 061756 AFDGRR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 156 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated Showers and Storms Today - Another round of showers/storms possible early next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 1210 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Surface low pressure is centered in Ontario at midday with ridging just upstream over Wisconsin and Minnesota. This places Southwest Lower Michigan in a northwest flow. Aloft, a weak shortwave trough is overhead also moving off to the east. The upper trough will aid in the development of some showers this afternoon that will likely persist into the early evening. Model soundings show 500-750 j/kg of MUCAPE this afternoon which is more than enough for a few showers. We also expect an isolated thunderstorm or two as well. The 12Z HREF shows a bit more 50 dbz echo this afternoon in the 4hr max reflectivity swaths. It is still very much isolated, but it did increase from the 00z run. A cooler than normal afternoon is expected by July standards with highs for the most part holding in the 70s due to the clouds. A quick marine note...our 1-3 foot and low swim risk still looks good as high resolution models do not support much more than that based on surface wind day. Highest waves will be from Holland south this afternoon in the 2-3 foot range. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 325 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 - Isolated Showers and Storms Today Fairly tranquil weather expected over the weekend as upper troughing prevails, but model soundings show a drying trend through Sunday. There will be enough moisture and diurnally driven instability to pop some showers and isolated thunderstorms today with the greatest coverage this afternoon across interior zones. With westerly low level flow we expect a lake shadow and little or no showers across the western zones. Shower activity diminishes and ends Saturday evening with the loss of insolation. Model soundings are drying out and surface ridging builds in on Sunday, so we will continue the dry forecast. - Another round of showers/storms possible early next week Another deep trough will swing into the region late Sunday night through Monday. Latest mid range models are in good agreement on the position and track of this positively tilted upper level trough. Copious amounts of mid level moisture will accompany this trough and coupled with good 500 mb vorticity there should be enough instability for showers and storms in the Tuesday timeframe. The biggest question is how much gulf moisture will this system tap into. Given the latest ensembles, while there is anomalous moisture moving through the region by mid week, the best moisture will be just east of the region. However there are some outliers that open the possibility for heavier rainfall. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 142 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 A generally BKN cloud deck (3-4kft) continues to impact West Michigan this afternoon in cool cyclonic flow. July sun has helped erode the clouds in some areas, while also sparking a few showers over eastern areas. LAN/JXN may see a stray shower through 22Z /though thunder not expected at this time/. Expect these clouds to diminish next several hours, and especially toward sunset, as ridge of high pressure over upper MS valley moves into the region. Mostly clear skies tonight with good radiational cooling may yield MVFR visibilities in fog in the 08-13Z timeframe. A few CU will form late Sunday morning, along with light southerly winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Winds and waves are expected to remain non-hazardous to boaters and swimmers over the weekend and into next week. The chance for thunderstorms is also low until early next week. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...Duke DISCUSSION...Ostuno/Ceru AVIATION...Smith MARINE...Ostuno